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2023 Presidential Elections: How Tinubu got more votes from north-west than south-west — other facts of the election

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The recently concluded presidential election may have thrown up some new questions for political scientists in the country to resolve- how Bola Ahmed Tinubu, president-elect, was able to garner the votes in the northeast to beat his closest opponent in the election Abubakar Atiku, a Fulani.

For a start, he got more votes from the north-west — the largest voting geo-political grouping in the country — than from the south-west, his home zone.

Atiku Abubakar, a Fulani and candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), was naturally expected to be the “homeboy” in the north in a country where ethnic and religious identities usually have a defining impact on voting patterns.

Before the February 25 election, there were permutations that Tinubu’s failure to pick a Fulani as running mate — Kashim Shettima is Kanuri from the north-east — was going to hurt his chances up north.

This permutation was not totally wrong: Atiku won four of the seven north-western states — Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi and Sokoto. Tinubu, candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), picked two — Jigawa and Zamfara. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) took his home state, Kano.

However, in raw numbers crunched by TheCable Index, Tinubu beat Atiku in the north-west, scoring 2,652,824 votes compared to his opponent’s 2,197,824. Not only were Atiku’s margins in some of the states narrow, Tinubu took a whopping half a million votes in Kano alone.

In fact, Tinubu got 30 percent of his total votes from the north-west. That is almost one-third.

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LAGOS GAVE TINUBU HIGHEST VOTES
Tinubu got his second highest votes from his home zone, the south-west, but also got some embarrassment, conceding two goals as it were.

He lost Lagos, his state and place of comfort since 1999, to Labour Party’s Peter Obi. He also lost Osun to Atiku.

Despite the big blow, he still got his highest number of votes from Lagos state: 572,606. In a sense, every vote for LP was also a vote for APC because in times past, PDP might have benefitted and that would have increased Atiku’s tally.

The entire south-west gave Tinubu 2,542,979, second to the north-west.

There is a vital context — his second highest votes came from Kano where he also came second. The third was also from a state where he came second: Katsina.

Coming second in certain states is better than coming first in others. He was first in Ekiti state, for instance, but he got only 200,000 votes but he got more than double the figure in Kano to place second.

MISERABLE OUTING IN THE SOUTH-EAST

While his opponents picked states in the south-west, Tinubu got a miserable one percent of his total votes from the south-east, Obi’s home zone.

He got a total of 127,605 votes from the five states and did not score 25 percent in any of them.

South-east’s preference for Obi is unmissable: no other candidate met the 25 percent in any of the five states: Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo.

The zone used to be won by the PDP. This was the first election since 1999 that the PDP did not win the zone.

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Tinubu got his lowest votes nationwide from Enugu state — 4,772, followed by Anambra (5,111), Abia (8,914), Ebonyi (42,402), Bayelsa (42,572) and Imo (66,406).

Although Bayelsa gave him only 42,572 votes, he met the 25 percent requirement there. Meanwhile, Tinubu came second in Ebonyi and Imo, two states controlled by the APC.

FIRST OR SECOND IN ALL ZONES

Remarkably, Tinubu came either first or second in all the geopolitical zones.

He won only one zone in the south — the south-west — but came second in the south-south and south-east. South-south’s 799,957 votes for Tinubu contributed nine percent to his total haul.

In the north, Tinubu led in the north-west and north-central. Some pundits had tipped Obi to win the north-central because of the Christians who are thought to be opposed to APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket.

Tinubu picked four of the six north-central states — Kwara, Kogi, Niger and Benue — leaving Obi with two: Plateau and Nasarawa. Atiku did not win any state in the zone, unlike in 2019 when he got Plateau and Benue.

Atiku won the north-east, his home zone, claiming all but Borno, even leading PDP to victory in Yobe for what should be the first time since 1999. Tinubu won only Borno, where his running mate hails from.

Also noteworthy is that Tinubu came first in 12 states and second in 19 states. He came third only in five states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

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Although Atiku also came first in 12 states, he came second in only 15 states and third in nine states plus the FCT.

Tinubu got 25 percent in 30 states, while Atiku did in 21 states and FCT and Obi managed it in only 16 plus FCT.

The constitution requires the overall winner to have scored at 25 percent in at least 24 states and FCT, and Tinubu’s failure to secure 25 percent in the federal capital is likely to be a focus of the election petition by his opponents.

NORTH MADE TINUBU PRESIDENT

The major calculation in Atiku’s camp was that being the strongest northerner on the ballot, he was going to sweep the northern states to make up for the loss of the south-east and south-south to Obi.

It did not seem to have worked.

Although Atiku won nine of the 19 states, his total haul of 4.8 million votes fell short of Tinubu’s 5.3 million. That means Tinubu’s seven states gave him more votes.

Obi scored four million to lead in the south, claiming nine states while Tinubu’s 3.2 million votes from five states placed him on the second slot. Atiku won in three states, netting 1.75 million votes.

If the majority of voters in the north had not backed Tinubu and instead supported Atiku, the PDP candidate would have won the highest votes without the required 25 percent spread.

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Ex- Ondo Dep Gov Agboola urges preservation of Ese-Odo political power rotation arrangement

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Former Deputy Governor of Ondo State, Ajayi Agboola Alfred, has called on political leaders and stakeholders in Ese Odo Local Government to uphold the longstanding political power rotation arrangement between the Apoi and Arogbo communities, describing it as a vital foundation for peace, unity, and political stability in the area.

In a statement released amid growing political realignments ahead of the next political season, the former deputy governor emphasized that the existing arrangement, which has been in place since 1999, was established to ensure fairness, mutual trust, and peaceful coexistence among the people of Ese-Odo Local Government.

According to him, the rotational understanding has over the years helped to prevent political tension and promote inclusiveness across the two blocs. He noted that the arrangement has remained respected by political actors and leaders across party lines and should not be altered for personal or selfish interests.

Agboola, who stated that he was among the leaders involved in initiating the agreement, recalled how political stakeholders in the past resisted attempts to disrupt the arrangement, particularly during the period when late Dr. Francis Ajih served as Chairman of Ese-Odo Local Government Council.

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He explained that despite efforts by some political interests at the time to alter the zoning structure, leaders and residents across party affiliations stood firmly in support of maintaining the agreed political balance, leading to the emergence of Late Hon. Earnest Anifowose from Apoi as a member of the Ondo State House of Assembly.

The former deputy governor warned against any move capable of creating division or mistrust between the Apoi and Arogbo communities, stressing that the House of Assembly seat should, according to the established understanding, remain the turn of Arogbo to produce the next representative.

He also appealed to political figures, including Hon. Toyin Allen, not to allow themselves to be drawn into actions that could threaten the existing harmony within the local government.

While reaffirming his commitment to protecting the arrangement alongside other leaders, Agboola urged all political stakeholders in Ese-Odo to place peace, unity, and collective interest above personal ambition.

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He further cautioned that any attempt to undermine the established political understanding could trigger avoidable tension and disrupt the longstanding brotherhood between both communities.

The former deputy governor concluded by calling on politicians and community leaders to continue to play politics with fairness, respect for agreements, and commitment to peaceful coexistence for the progress and stability of Ese-Odo Local Government and future generations.

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Army recovers suspected remains of soldier couple killed by IPOB/ESN

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The Nigerian Army says it has located the suspected remains of two soldiers who were “brutally abducted and murdered” by suspected members of the proscribed Indigenous People of Biafra and the Eastern Security Network in May 2022 while en route to their traditional wedding.

According to the army, the remains of the couple, identified as Master Warrant Officer Linus Musa Audu and Private Gloria Mathew, were discovered when its troops dismantled a notorious camp belonging to the IPOB and the ESN in Imo State.

“The Nigerian Army has recorded another significant operational success in its sustained efforts to rid the South East of criminal elements, as troops of 82 Division, in conjunction with sister services and other security agencies, successfully dismantled a notorious camp belonging to the proscribed Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) and its armed affiliate, the Eastern Security Network (ESN), in Imo State.

“Acting on intelligence information, the operation, conducted on 24 April 2026 along the Ubaha Orsu axis of Orsu Local Government Area, was part of a deliberate clearance and search mission aimed at dismantling IPOB/ESN hideout within the region and locating the remains of two personnel of the Nigerian Army, Master Warrant Officer Linus Musa Audu and Private Gloria Mathew, who were brutally abducted and murdered by IPOB/ESN terrorists in May 2022 while en route for their traditional wedding,” the army said in a statement on its X handle.

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The army explained that the troops, acting on credible intelligence, advanced towards a suspected IPOB/ESN hideout when they came under heavy attack by armed criminals.

It, however, said that the troops demonstrated resilience and decisively engaged the terrorists, successfully repelling multiple ambushes and forcing the criminals to flee in disarray.

“The encounter further exposed the desperation and criminal nature of the group, which continues to target innocent citizens and security personnel alike.

“Following the successful clearance of the camp, troops conducted a thorough search of the area and made a grim but important discovery: shallow graves suspected to contain the remains of the slain personnel. The graves were carefully excavated and suspected remains were recovered,” it stated.

The military authorities further disclosed that the recovered remains had since been secured for detailed forensic analysis, including DNA testing, to conclusively establish their identities.

It also said that efforts were also ongoing to liaise with the families of the fallen soldiers to ensure proper identification and facilitate befitting burial arrangements in honour of their sacrifice.

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The army further noted that the operation not only underscored its unwavering commitment to ensuring justice for fallen heroes but also highlighted the continued degradation of IPOB/ESN criminal networks and infrastructure across the South East.

“The discovery of shallow graves within their camp further exposes the group’s heinous atrocities and disregard for human life.

“The Nigerian Army reassures the general public that ongoing operations will continue until all criminal elements are neutralised and lasting peace is restored across the region. We appreciate the Law-abiding citizens for the information and urge you to remain vigilant and continue to support security agencies with timely and credible information.

“The Nigerian Army remains resolute, professional, and committed to defending the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Nigeria,” the statement added.

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Good morning! Nigerian Newspapers Headlines: Kidnap terror: 30 Kwara kings flee palaces

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1. No fewer than 30 traditional rulers across the southern area of Kwara State have fled their palaces following a sustained wave of kidnappings, killings and violent attacks, Saturday PUNCH has learnt.

Our correspondents gathered from two credible community leaders that the affected monarchs were seeking refuge in urban centres, including Ilorin, Osogbo, Offa, and Lagos.

2. The Emir of Kano, Muhammadu Sanusi II, on Friday raised concerns over the Federal Government’s continued reliance on borrowing despite the removal of petrol subsidy. Speaking during an interview on TV, the former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) warned that weak fiscal discipline could undermine the gains expected from recent economic reforms.

3. President Bola Tinubu on Friday administered the oath of office to Dr Muttaqha Rabe Darma from Katsina State as the new minister of housing and urban development, following his Senate clearance. President Tinubu, at the short ceremony at the State House, congratulated Dr Darma for coming on board at this “very challenging time of national development.

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4. Taiwo Oyedele has officially taken over as Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy following the completion of the handover process by his predecessor, Wale Edun. According to a statement issued on Friday by the Head of Information and Public Relations Unit, Efe Ovuakporie, the handover took place on Thursday, April 23, 2026, in line with a directive from President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

5. Gunmen have reportedly killed five people, including a traditional ruler, his wife, son and two other residents in Olegabulu community of Agatu Local Government Area of Benue State. Residents said the attack occurred on Thursday night when the assailants, who arrived on two motorcycles, stormed the monarch’s residence and opened fire on him and his family members.

6. A former chairman of the defunct Skye Bank Plc, Tunde Ayeni, has been arrested by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission over alleged money laundering, misappropriation and diversion of funds amounting to N36.54bn and $30m. It was gathered that Ayeni, who was arrested in Abuja on Thursday, is currently being detained at the commission’s facility.

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7. The Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, resigned from President Bola Tinubu’s cabinet against the wishes of the President who had dissuaded him from quitting, Saturday PUNCH has learnt. Insiders familiar with the back and forth that preceded the resignation told our correspondents on Friday that Adelabu insisted on quitting the cabinet to pursue his governorship ambition in Oyo State.


8. A Kogi State High Court sitting in Lokoja has awarded N1 billion in damages against Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan in a defamation suit filed by former Kogi State Governor, Yahaya Adoza Bello. Akpoti-Uduaghan has, however, rejected the judgment, declaring her intention to challenge the ruling at the Court of Appeal.

9. President Bola Tinubu on Friday held a closed-door meeting with the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abbas, and some members of the House at the Presidential Villa, Abuja. It was learnt that the Friday’s meeting, which was not on the President’s official schedule, took place shortly after the lawmakers joined him for Jummah prayers at the State House Mosque.

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10. Benue State Police Command has arrested two suspects in connection with the killing of a National Youth Service Corps member, Ben Agir, who was allegedly mobbed to death by a vigilante group over a motorcycle he reportedly owned. Agir was killed last Sunday night at Major Settlement, near Buruku Local Government Secretariat, in Buruku Local Government Area of the state. He was accused of stealing a motorcycle before being attacked.

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