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2023 Presidential Elections: How Tinubu got more votes from north-west than south-west — other facts of the election

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The recently concluded presidential election may have thrown up some new questions for political scientists in the country to resolve- how Bola Ahmed Tinubu, president-elect, was able to garner the votes in the northeast to beat his closest opponent in the election Abubakar Atiku, a Fulani.

For a start, he got more votes from the north-west — the largest voting geo-political grouping in the country — than from the south-west, his home zone.

Atiku Abubakar, a Fulani and candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), was naturally expected to be the “homeboy” in the north in a country where ethnic and religious identities usually have a defining impact on voting patterns.

Before the February 25 election, there were permutations that Tinubu’s failure to pick a Fulani as running mate — Kashim Shettima is Kanuri from the north-east — was going to hurt his chances up north.

This permutation was not totally wrong: Atiku won four of the seven north-western states — Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi and Sokoto. Tinubu, candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), picked two — Jigawa and Zamfara. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) took his home state, Kano.

However, in raw numbers crunched by TheCable Index, Tinubu beat Atiku in the north-west, scoring 2,652,824 votes compared to his opponent’s 2,197,824. Not only were Atiku’s margins in some of the states narrow, Tinubu took a whopping half a million votes in Kano alone.

In fact, Tinubu got 30 percent of his total votes from the north-west. That is almost one-third.

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LAGOS GAVE TINUBU HIGHEST VOTES
Tinubu got his second highest votes from his home zone, the south-west, but also got some embarrassment, conceding two goals as it were.

He lost Lagos, his state and place of comfort since 1999, to Labour Party’s Peter Obi. He also lost Osun to Atiku.

Despite the big blow, he still got his highest number of votes from Lagos state: 572,606. In a sense, every vote for LP was also a vote for APC because in times past, PDP might have benefitted and that would have increased Atiku’s tally.

The entire south-west gave Tinubu 2,542,979, second to the north-west.

There is a vital context — his second highest votes came from Kano where he also came second. The third was also from a state where he came second: Katsina.

Coming second in certain states is better than coming first in others. He was first in Ekiti state, for instance, but he got only 200,000 votes but he got more than double the figure in Kano to place second.

MISERABLE OUTING IN THE SOUTH-EAST

While his opponents picked states in the south-west, Tinubu got a miserable one percent of his total votes from the south-east, Obi’s home zone.

He got a total of 127,605 votes from the five states and did not score 25 percent in any of them.

South-east’s preference for Obi is unmissable: no other candidate met the 25 percent in any of the five states: Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo.

The zone used to be won by the PDP. This was the first election since 1999 that the PDP did not win the zone.

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Tinubu got his lowest votes nationwide from Enugu state — 4,772, followed by Anambra (5,111), Abia (8,914), Ebonyi (42,402), Bayelsa (42,572) and Imo (66,406).

Although Bayelsa gave him only 42,572 votes, he met the 25 percent requirement there. Meanwhile, Tinubu came second in Ebonyi and Imo, two states controlled by the APC.

FIRST OR SECOND IN ALL ZONES

Remarkably, Tinubu came either first or second in all the geopolitical zones.

He won only one zone in the south — the south-west — but came second in the south-south and south-east. South-south’s 799,957 votes for Tinubu contributed nine percent to his total haul.

In the north, Tinubu led in the north-west and north-central. Some pundits had tipped Obi to win the north-central because of the Christians who are thought to be opposed to APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket.

Tinubu picked four of the six north-central states — Kwara, Kogi, Niger and Benue — leaving Obi with two: Plateau and Nasarawa. Atiku did not win any state in the zone, unlike in 2019 when he got Plateau and Benue.

Atiku won the north-east, his home zone, claiming all but Borno, even leading PDP to victory in Yobe for what should be the first time since 1999. Tinubu won only Borno, where his running mate hails from.

Also noteworthy is that Tinubu came first in 12 states and second in 19 states. He came third only in five states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

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Although Atiku also came first in 12 states, he came second in only 15 states and third in nine states plus the FCT.

Tinubu got 25 percent in 30 states, while Atiku did in 21 states and FCT and Obi managed it in only 16 plus FCT.

The constitution requires the overall winner to have scored at 25 percent in at least 24 states and FCT, and Tinubu’s failure to secure 25 percent in the federal capital is likely to be a focus of the election petition by his opponents.

NORTH MADE TINUBU PRESIDENT

The major calculation in Atiku’s camp was that being the strongest northerner on the ballot, he was going to sweep the northern states to make up for the loss of the south-east and south-south to Obi.

It did not seem to have worked.

Although Atiku won nine of the 19 states, his total haul of 4.8 million votes fell short of Tinubu’s 5.3 million. That means Tinubu’s seven states gave him more votes.

Obi scored four million to lead in the south, claiming nine states while Tinubu’s 3.2 million votes from five states placed him on the second slot. Atiku won in three states, netting 1.75 million votes.

If the majority of voters in the north had not backed Tinubu and instead supported Atiku, the PDP candidate would have won the highest votes without the required 25 percent spread.

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Good morning! Nigerian Newspapers Headlines: NDC dissociates itself from 59-member presidential campaign council unveiled by Obi-Kwankwaso movement

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1. The leadership of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) has distanced itself from the 59-member presidential campaign council constituted by OK Movement, a support group for Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the party, and his running mate, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.

In a statement on Saturday, Cleopas Moses, NDC national chairman, said the list did not emanate from the party and should be disregarded.


2. Former Senior Special Assistant Media and Publicity to the late President Muhammadu Buhari, Mallam Garba Shehu, said yesterday that the litigation instituted against Nigeria by Sunrise Power and Transmission Company at the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) tribunal in Paris was doomed from the outset. 
Garba, who personally attended the January 15, 2025 sitting of the tribunal in the French capital, said it was clear from day one that Sunrise and its promoter Leno Adesanya “would lose this case following the failure of all the witnesses they invited, including, of course, a beautiful lady from Senegal allegedly providing comfort to one of their government contacts.

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3. The Presidency yesterday knocked back economic proposals by the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. It asked him to take the proposals to Nigerians on his campaign trail rather than seeking to dictate how President Bola Tinubu should govern the country.

4. The Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) has forecast a high risk of riverine flooding across 15 states between September 19 to 25.
In its national flood advisory issued on Friday, the agency said rising river levels could trigger flooding in communities located on floodplains during the seven-day period.
The affected states are Imo, Cross River, Ebonyi, Benue, Anambra, Akwa Ibom, Lagos, Rivers, Edo, Kogi, Taraba, Delta, Bayelsa, Enugu and Abia.

5. Delta State Police Command has arrested a suspect after its personnel intercepted a vehicle conveying military camouflage uniforms, boots and hats, as well as cartons of suspected Tramadol and other illicit drugs. The vehicle, a green Toyota Sienna with registration number KP 527 AAA, was intercepted by operatives of the command’s Anti-Cult Unit, Asaba, along the Onitsha-Ondo route on Friday.

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6. Police in Rivers State have begun an investigation into the killing of a father of four, Kamadioye Krama, by gunmen in Emulation community, Abua/Odual Local Government Area. The spokesperson for the State Police Command, Blessing Agabe, confirmed the incident, stating that an investigation was ongoing to apprehend the culprits and bring them to book.

7. President Bola Tinubu has said that, from October 1, commuters across Nigeria must begin to see measurable reductions in transportation fares, as he has directed all 36 states to accelerate the National Affordable CNG Transit Programme. In a statement personally signed and released on Saturday, September 19, Tinubu said the push followed his August 27 meeting with state governors.

8. The Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps, NSCDC, has deployed Abdulhamid Kabara as the new commandant of its Niger State Command following the deaths of 37 suspected illegal miners in custody. Kabara replaces Suberu Aniviye, who was suspended as Niger NSCDC commandant after the 37 suspects died in Minna, the state capital, on Thursday.

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9. The Northern Senators Forum on Saturday called for an immediate, transparent and independent investigation into the deaths of 37 young Nigerians in the custody of the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps, NSCDC, in Minna, Niger State. It described the circumstances surrounding the occurrence as “deeply disturbing and unacceptable.”

10. The Minister of Interior, Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, has suspended the Niger State Commandant of the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), Suberu Aniviye, and 20 other officers following the deaths of 37 suspected illegal miners in the Corps’ custody. The officers were suspended pending the outcome of an independent investigation into the deaths, which occurred on Thursday, September 17, 2026. The Ministry of Interior announced the development in a statement signed by Tunji-Ojo on Saturday

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Keyamo, Sunday Dare knock Atiku for addressing President Tinubu as ‘Bola’

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  The minister of aviation, Festus Keyamo, and the special adviser to President Bola Tinubu on media and public communication, Sunday Dare, have criticised former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar for referring to the President as “Bola”.

Keyamo described Atiku’s use of Tinubu’s first name as “disrespectful and discourteous”.

“The continuous reference to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu by His Excellency, ex Vice-President Atiku Abubakar in his press conference earlier today as ‘Bola’ is very disrespectful and discourteous,” he wrote on X.

He said Atiku should recognise that the office of the president deserves to be accorded dignity despite political differences.

“He should know better that no matter your differences with Mr. President, for the sake of the country, that office should be accorded all the dignity it deserves,” Keyamo said.

Keyamo also described the tone of Atiku’s remarks as reflecting “pain and bitterness”, while referring to the former vice-president’s recent comment about Tinubu’s age.

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“After all, he made the outlandish claim the other day that Mr. President is older than himself. It is therefore a contradiction that he would also refer to an ‘elder’ by his first name,” he said.

Also, Dare, in a post on X on Saturday,  reacted to Atiku’s call for Tinubu to reduce petrol and electricity costs.

Atiku had on Friday asked Tinubu to use the remaining eight months of his administration to reduce the burden of petrol and electricity costs on households, workers and businesses.

He said the removal of petrol subsidy in May 2023 had contributed to higher transportation, food, logistics and energy costs. He also warned against phasing out electricity subsidies without addressing the impact on households and businesses.

Dare described Atiku’s manner of addressing the president as “the height of insolence”, accusing the former vice-president of political desperation.

“Alhaji Atiku’s manner of addressing President Bola Tinubu as Bola is the height of insolence. It is a clear descent into the abyss of unbridled desperation and an unraveling mind,” Dare wrote.

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“To seek to lecture a sitting president with the unbridled insolence of dropping his first name, petulantly barking instructions, and dictating how governance should be run within a truncated timeline is the height of political hubris.”

Dare defended the Tinubu administration’s economic policies, saying the president was undertaking reforms to address structural problems in the economy.

Dare also questioned Atiku’s criticism of government intervention in the economy.

“Atiku’s sudden conversion to the gospel of interventionism rings hollow,” he said.

He accused Atiku of using Nigerians’ economic difficulties for political purposes ahead of the 2027 elections.

“This is a desperate strategy by a perennial seeker of power who weaponizes transient national discomforts for electoral mileage,” Dare added.

“Nigerians do not need lectures on fiscal management from a political wanderer whose decades-long pursuit of the presidency has been defined by perpetual opportunism.”

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South Africa-based Nigerian lecturer found dead at her residence

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A Nigerian lecturer at the University of Fort Hare, South Africa, Ayodele Odularu, has been found dead at her residence in Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.

According to reports, Gbadebo Odularu, the brother of the deceased, said she died on August 16 at the age of 51.

A family member, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Punch’s Diaspora Tales that the lecturer’s death was not natural and the circumstances remained unclear to the family.

The family had asked for an investigation into her death.

In a GoFundMe statement published by Gbadebo on behalf of the family, the lecturer was described as someone who “dedicated her life to knowledge, discovery, and creating a better future for communities”.

The family said “although her journey on earth ended too soon, the impact of her life continues through the people she inspired, the knowledge she shared, and the communities she hoped to serve”.

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“Ayodele was far more than a sister. She was a cherished daughter, aunt, friend, mentor, scholar, and a source of encouragement, compassion, wisdom, and strength to everyone blessed to know her,” the statement reads.

“Her presence brought warmth into every room. She was known for her kindness, infectious laughter, generosity, resilience, and unwavering commitment to uplifting others. She had a rare ability to make people feel valued, heard, and inspired.

“Dr. Ayodele Odularu dedicated her life to knowledge, discovery, and creating a better future for communities.

“As an Independent Senior Researcher at the University of Fort Hare Community, she contributed meaningfully to academic research and the advancement of knowledge through her scholarly work.”

On Thursday, University of Fort Hare organised a memorial service in honour of the lecturer.

The lecturer died amid the violent attacks against Nigerians and other Africans in South Africa.

To date the Federal Government has 
facilitated the evacuation of 1,716 Nigerians from South Africa over Xenophobic attacks in the former apartheid country.

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