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2023 Presidential Elections: How Tinubu got more votes from north-west than south-west — other facts of the election

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The recently concluded presidential election may have thrown up some new questions for political scientists in the country to resolve- how Bola Ahmed Tinubu, president-elect, was able to garner the votes in the northeast to beat his closest opponent in the election Abubakar Atiku, a Fulani.

For a start, he got more votes from the north-west — the largest voting geo-political grouping in the country — than from the south-west, his home zone.

Atiku Abubakar, a Fulani and candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), was naturally expected to be the “homeboy” in the north in a country where ethnic and religious identities usually have a defining impact on voting patterns.

Before the February 25 election, there were permutations that Tinubu’s failure to pick a Fulani as running mate — Kashim Shettima is Kanuri from the north-east — was going to hurt his chances up north.

This permutation was not totally wrong: Atiku won four of the seven north-western states — Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi and Sokoto. Tinubu, candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), picked two — Jigawa and Zamfara. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) took his home state, Kano.

However, in raw numbers crunched by TheCable Index, Tinubu beat Atiku in the north-west, scoring 2,652,824 votes compared to his opponent’s 2,197,824. Not only were Atiku’s margins in some of the states narrow, Tinubu took a whopping half a million votes in Kano alone.

In fact, Tinubu got 30 percent of his total votes from the north-west. That is almost one-third.

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LAGOS GAVE TINUBU HIGHEST VOTES
Tinubu got his second highest votes from his home zone, the south-west, but also got some embarrassment, conceding two goals as it were.

He lost Lagos, his state and place of comfort since 1999, to Labour Party’s Peter Obi. He also lost Osun to Atiku.

Despite the big blow, he still got his highest number of votes from Lagos state: 572,606. In a sense, every vote for LP was also a vote for APC because in times past, PDP might have benefitted and that would have increased Atiku’s tally.

The entire south-west gave Tinubu 2,542,979, second to the north-west.

There is a vital context — his second highest votes came from Kano where he also came second. The third was also from a state where he came second: Katsina.

Coming second in certain states is better than coming first in others. He was first in Ekiti state, for instance, but he got only 200,000 votes but he got more than double the figure in Kano to place second.

MISERABLE OUTING IN THE SOUTH-EAST

While his opponents picked states in the south-west, Tinubu got a miserable one percent of his total votes from the south-east, Obi’s home zone.

He got a total of 127,605 votes from the five states and did not score 25 percent in any of them.

South-east’s preference for Obi is unmissable: no other candidate met the 25 percent in any of the five states: Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo.

The zone used to be won by the PDP. This was the first election since 1999 that the PDP did not win the zone.

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Tinubu got his lowest votes nationwide from Enugu state — 4,772, followed by Anambra (5,111), Abia (8,914), Ebonyi (42,402), Bayelsa (42,572) and Imo (66,406).

Although Bayelsa gave him only 42,572 votes, he met the 25 percent requirement there. Meanwhile, Tinubu came second in Ebonyi and Imo, two states controlled by the APC.

FIRST OR SECOND IN ALL ZONES

Remarkably, Tinubu came either first or second in all the geopolitical zones.

He won only one zone in the south — the south-west — but came second in the south-south and south-east. South-south’s 799,957 votes for Tinubu contributed nine percent to his total haul.

In the north, Tinubu led in the north-west and north-central. Some pundits had tipped Obi to win the north-central because of the Christians who are thought to be opposed to APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket.

Tinubu picked four of the six north-central states — Kwara, Kogi, Niger and Benue — leaving Obi with two: Plateau and Nasarawa. Atiku did not win any state in the zone, unlike in 2019 when he got Plateau and Benue.

Atiku won the north-east, his home zone, claiming all but Borno, even leading PDP to victory in Yobe for what should be the first time since 1999. Tinubu won only Borno, where his running mate hails from.

Also noteworthy is that Tinubu came first in 12 states and second in 19 states. He came third only in five states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

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Although Atiku also came first in 12 states, he came second in only 15 states and third in nine states plus the FCT.

Tinubu got 25 percent in 30 states, while Atiku did in 21 states and FCT and Obi managed it in only 16 plus FCT.

The constitution requires the overall winner to have scored at 25 percent in at least 24 states and FCT, and Tinubu’s failure to secure 25 percent in the federal capital is likely to be a focus of the election petition by his opponents.

NORTH MADE TINUBU PRESIDENT

The major calculation in Atiku’s camp was that being the strongest northerner on the ballot, he was going to sweep the northern states to make up for the loss of the south-east and south-south to Obi.

It did not seem to have worked.

Although Atiku won nine of the 19 states, his total haul of 4.8 million votes fell short of Tinubu’s 5.3 million. That means Tinubu’s seven states gave him more votes.

Obi scored four million to lead in the south, claiming nine states while Tinubu’s 3.2 million votes from five states placed him on the second slot. Atiku won in three states, netting 1.75 million votes.

If the majority of voters in the north had not backed Tinubu and instead supported Atiku, the PDP candidate would have won the highest votes without the required 25 percent spread.

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Oyo school abductions: Makinde signs executive order, restricts Okada 

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Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo state
has signed Executive Order No. 002 of 2026, aimed at strengthening security, enforcing vehicle registration regulations and improving traffic management across the state.

The governor also announced restrictions on the operations of commercial motorcycle operators, popularly known as “Okada” riders.

The development follows growing concerns over security challenges in parts of the state, particularly the continued captivity of teachers and pupils abducted in Oriire Local Government Area more than 20 days ago.

Speaking during the signing ceremony in his Office on Friday, Makinde said the executive order was designed to ensure strict compliance with existing laws governing vehicle registration and traffic regulations.

He noted that unregistered vehicles, motorcycles, and tricycles have increasingly been used to perpetrate criminal activities within the state.

According to the governor, security agencies often encounter difficulties tracking and investigating crimes involving unregistered vehicles because of the absence of identifiable registration details.

Governor Makinde explained that the executive order would provide a legal framework for the strict enforcement of vehicle registration requirements and other traffic regulations, including measures against driving against traffic and related offences.

According to him, designated enforcement authorities have been empowered to arrest offenders and impound vehicles, motorcycles, or tricycles found violating the provisions of the order.

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The governor said offenders apprehended under the executive order would be prosecuted in accordance with the law, while seized assets and properties would be handled through established legal procedures.

The governor linked the latest security measures to lessons learnt from recent security breaches, especially the abduction of schoolchildren and teachers in Oriire Local Government Area.

“We are living through very trying times; for over 20 days, our teachers and pupils have remained in captivity in the hands of terrorists. Our thoughts and prayers remain with them and with their families who continue to endure unimaginable pain and uncertainty,” He said. 

He assured residents that his administration remained fully committed to securing the safe return of all abducted victims and was working relentlessly with relevant security agencies to achieve that objective.

“As a government, we share in their anxiety and their hope, and we remain committed to doing everything within our power to secure the safe return of every one of them,” Makinde said.

The governor acknowledged the pain being experienced by the affected families and communities, stressing that the abducted teachers and pupils had neither been forgotten nor abandoned.

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While declining to disclose operational details for security reasons, Makinde maintained that extensive efforts were ongoing behind the scenes and urged residents not to mistake the government’s silence for inaction.

One of the major highlights of the executive order is the restriction placed on commercial motorcycle operations across Oyo State.

Makinde announced that commercial motorcycle operators would no longer be permitted to operate between 10:30 p.m. and 5:30 a.m. statewide, describing the measure as part of additional efforts to improve security and public safety.

The governor said the restriction became necessary as part of broader strategies to curb criminal activities and strengthen surveillance across communities.

He appealed to residents to actively support security agencies by providing timely information on suspicious movements and activities.

According to him, security remains a collective responsibility that requires the cooperation of all citizens.

“If you see something, say something, and authorities will do something,” he said, while reminding residents of the state’s toll-free emergency number, 615, for reporting security threats and emergencies.

Makinde also urged residents to remain vigilant, united and resilient despite the current security challenges, warning against allowing fear to undermine communal harmony and confidence.

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He commended security agencies and members of the state’s security outfit, Amotekun Corps, for their dedication, sacrifices and professionalism in responding to security threats across Oyo State.

The governor expressed optimism that with sustained collaboration among security agencies, community stakeholders, and residents, the abducted teachers and pupils would be rescued safely and security across the state would be further strengthened.

In his address at the event, the Attorney General of the state and Commissioner for Justice, Abiodun Aikomo, stated that the implementation of the order would be carried out by relevant agencies, including the Oyo State Road Traffic Management Authority (OYRTMA), the Nigeria Police Force and other law enforcement bodies, which would be required to submit periodic reports on enforcement activities to the state government.

To ensure transparency and accountability, Aikomo stated that the Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions would provide oversight on prosecutions arising from the enforcement exercise, while members of the public would be encouraged to report any misconduct by officials involved in implementing the order.

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Nigeria set to repatriate over 1,000 nationals from South Africa as violence continues

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The Federal government has kick-started plans to bring back home more than 1,000 Nigerians from South Africa as concerns grow over rising anti-immigrant sentiments and renewed xenophobic tensions in the southern African nation.

According to reports, Nigeria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed on Friday that screening for a voluntary repatriation programme began on Thursday, with authorities expecting over 1,000 Nigerians to participate.

Foreign ministry spokesperson Kimiebi Ebienfa told AFP that the final number of those seeking to return home had not yet been determined but noted that the figure was expected to exceed 1,000.

“Total figure not out yet,” he said. “We are expecting over 1,000 persons.”

The move follows a similar action by Ghana, which recently repatriated hundreds of its nationals from South Africa amid increasing fears over protests and violence directed at foreign nationals.

In a statement dated Tuesday, Nigeria’s High Commission in Pretoria said it had “negotiated waivers with host authorities” so that those with “immigration-related offences” would be allowed to leave on the eventual repatriation flights rather than be detained.

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South Africa, until recently the continent’s most industrialised economy, has long attracted workers from across the region.

But saddled with an unemployment rate of over 30 per cent, it has seen repeated spurts of xenophobic protests — including renewed violence in recent weeks.

The latest tensions have revived uncomfortable debates across Africa about xenophobia, migration and the gap between pan-African rhetoric and realities facing migration on the continent.

An ultimatum by one citizen-led group for illegal migrants to be expelled by June 30 has raised fears of violence after bouts of anti-immigrant unrest in the past that claimed dozens of lives.

Last month, Ghana repatriated some 300 people, the first batch of what authorities said was expected to be a total of about 800 Ghanaian nationals.

The South African government has said it is stepping up enforcement against undocumented immigrants but urged citizens not to take matters into their own hands.

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There are more than three million foreigners living in South Africa, or 5.1 per cent of the population, according to the statistics agency.

More than 63 per cent come from countries in the 16-member Southern African Development Community (SADC) bloc.

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Again, WAEC candidates write exams with Torchlight

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The 2026 West African Senior School Certificate Examination (WASSCE) got off to a dark start on Thursday across several centres in Oyo, Lagos, Ogun and Osun states.

Due to the late arrival of examination materials, several candidates were forced to sit for papers late into the evening.

On Monday, candidates reportedly waited several hours before writing the Physics Essay and Objective papers, which were scheduled for 2pm and 3:30pm respectively.

The delays persisted on Wednesday, with the General Mathematics Objective paper starting at 6:30pm in some centres and as late as 8:30pm in others, leaving candidates to finish the examination after 10pm.

The situation was said to be particularly severe in some centres in Ibadan, the Oyo state capital.

The first batch of the Agricultural Science practical examination was slated for 2pm, while the second batch was scheduled for 3:30pm.

However, as of 8pm, some centres in the state had yet to commence the examination.

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Due to the delay, candidates reportedly sat the examination under poor lighting conditions.

In a viral video, several students could be seen writing the examination with torchlights, mobile phone flashlights and solar-powered lamps.

The incident has since triggered widespread outrage on social media.

Mariam Kehinde, an X user, said that as of past 8pm on Thursday, her sister was yet to return home from the examination centre.

“What exactly is happening in this country sef? My sister left for her WAEC exam since morning and still hadn’t returned home,” she wrote.

“She called around 6pm saying their exam paper had just arrived at that time nitori olorun. She was still at the exam centre, and my mum even had to wait.”

Adedeji Adeyinka, another user, described Thursday’s conduct of the examination as “particularly disturbing”.

“Candidates writing Government completed the Theory paper and were instructed to wait for the Objective paper, only for the question paper to arrive more than FOUR HOURS later,” he posted.

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“How is this acceptable in a national examination? Even more shocking was the situation faced by students writing Agricultural Science Practical. An examination scheduled for 2:00 p.m. did not commence until about 9:00 p.m. in many parts of Oyo State.

“A seven-hour delay is not a minor inconvenience. It is a systemic failure.”

Another X user identified as Mum Ire also lamented the shortage of question papers during Wednesday’s Mathematics examination.

“Out of 75 candidates, only 35 Mathematics question papers were brought to the examination centre for the entire exam yesterday,” she wrote on Thursday.

“When did WAEC start operating like this?

“Now we are being told that the Agriculture Science practical questions are on the way at 8:10 pm.”

Joel Abodunrin also decried the shortage of question papers.

“WAEC’s been doing well until today,” he wrote on Wednesday.

“An examination hall of about 250 candidates and having Mathematics question papers for only 120.

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“Getting to tear the questions into pieces so that all could have something to do.”

Hakeem Olaoye, another user, said candidates were being made to write examinations at unreasonable hours.

“WAEC exam being conducted late in the evening.

“The Agric practical exam that was supposed to be held by 2pm just commenced some minutes after 7pm,” he wrote.

“Very disheartening indeed. Likewise for Mathematics. A school with 130 students was given 16 question booklets to share among.”

The development has raised concerns about the safety of candidates amid the country’s growing security challenges.

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