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2023 Presidential Elections: How Tinubu got more votes from north-west than south-west — other facts of the election

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The recently concluded presidential election may have thrown up some new questions for political scientists in the country to resolve- how Bola Ahmed Tinubu, president-elect, was able to garner the votes in the northeast to beat his closest opponent in the election Abubakar Atiku, a Fulani.

For a start, he got more votes from the north-west — the largest voting geo-political grouping in the country — than from the south-west, his home zone.

Atiku Abubakar, a Fulani and candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), was naturally expected to be the “homeboy” in the north in a country where ethnic and religious identities usually have a defining impact on voting patterns.

Before the February 25 election, there were permutations that Tinubu’s failure to pick a Fulani as running mate — Kashim Shettima is Kanuri from the north-east — was going to hurt his chances up north.

This permutation was not totally wrong: Atiku won four of the seven north-western states — Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi and Sokoto. Tinubu, candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), picked two — Jigawa and Zamfara. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) took his home state, Kano.

However, in raw numbers crunched by TheCable Index, Tinubu beat Atiku in the north-west, scoring 2,652,824 votes compared to his opponent’s 2,197,824. Not only were Atiku’s margins in some of the states narrow, Tinubu took a whopping half a million votes in Kano alone.

In fact, Tinubu got 30 percent of his total votes from the north-west. That is almost one-third.

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LAGOS GAVE TINUBU HIGHEST VOTES
Tinubu got his second highest votes from his home zone, the south-west, but also got some embarrassment, conceding two goals as it were.

He lost Lagos, his state and place of comfort since 1999, to Labour Party’s Peter Obi. He also lost Osun to Atiku.

Despite the big blow, he still got his highest number of votes from Lagos state: 572,606. In a sense, every vote for LP was also a vote for APC because in times past, PDP might have benefitted and that would have increased Atiku’s tally.

The entire south-west gave Tinubu 2,542,979, second to the north-west.

There is a vital context — his second highest votes came from Kano where he also came second. The third was also from a state where he came second: Katsina.

Coming second in certain states is better than coming first in others. He was first in Ekiti state, for instance, but he got only 200,000 votes but he got more than double the figure in Kano to place second.

MISERABLE OUTING IN THE SOUTH-EAST

While his opponents picked states in the south-west, Tinubu got a miserable one percent of his total votes from the south-east, Obi’s home zone.

He got a total of 127,605 votes from the five states and did not score 25 percent in any of them.

South-east’s preference for Obi is unmissable: no other candidate met the 25 percent in any of the five states: Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo.

The zone used to be won by the PDP. This was the first election since 1999 that the PDP did not win the zone.

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Tinubu got his lowest votes nationwide from Enugu state — 4,772, followed by Anambra (5,111), Abia (8,914), Ebonyi (42,402), Bayelsa (42,572) and Imo (66,406).

Although Bayelsa gave him only 42,572 votes, he met the 25 percent requirement there. Meanwhile, Tinubu came second in Ebonyi and Imo, two states controlled by the APC.

FIRST OR SECOND IN ALL ZONES

Remarkably, Tinubu came either first or second in all the geopolitical zones.

He won only one zone in the south — the south-west — but came second in the south-south and south-east. South-south’s 799,957 votes for Tinubu contributed nine percent to his total haul.

In the north, Tinubu led in the north-west and north-central. Some pundits had tipped Obi to win the north-central because of the Christians who are thought to be opposed to APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket.

Tinubu picked four of the six north-central states — Kwara, Kogi, Niger and Benue — leaving Obi with two: Plateau and Nasarawa. Atiku did not win any state in the zone, unlike in 2019 when he got Plateau and Benue.

Atiku won the north-east, his home zone, claiming all but Borno, even leading PDP to victory in Yobe for what should be the first time since 1999. Tinubu won only Borno, where his running mate hails from.

Also noteworthy is that Tinubu came first in 12 states and second in 19 states. He came third only in five states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

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Although Atiku also came first in 12 states, he came second in only 15 states and third in nine states plus the FCT.

Tinubu got 25 percent in 30 states, while Atiku did in 21 states and FCT and Obi managed it in only 16 plus FCT.

The constitution requires the overall winner to have scored at 25 percent in at least 24 states and FCT, and Tinubu’s failure to secure 25 percent in the federal capital is likely to be a focus of the election petition by his opponents.

NORTH MADE TINUBU PRESIDENT

The major calculation in Atiku’s camp was that being the strongest northerner on the ballot, he was going to sweep the northern states to make up for the loss of the south-east and south-south to Obi.

It did not seem to have worked.

Although Atiku won nine of the 19 states, his total haul of 4.8 million votes fell short of Tinubu’s 5.3 million. That means Tinubu’s seven states gave him more votes.

Obi scored four million to lead in the south, claiming nine states while Tinubu’s 3.2 million votes from five states placed him on the second slot. Atiku won in three states, netting 1.75 million votes.

If the majority of voters in the north had not backed Tinubu and instead supported Atiku, the PDP candidate would have won the highest votes without the required 25 percent spread.

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Two Oyo commissioner, special adviser resign

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Two senior officials in the Oyo State Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning have resigned their appointments from Governor Seyi Makinde’s administration.

The officials are Ayobami Ojo, the Commissioner for Budget and Economic Planning, and Simeon Oyeleke, the ministry’s Special Adviser on Budget and Economic Planning.

In separate letters dated November 2, and addressed to Mr Makinde, both officials said their resignations would take effect immediately, while thanking the governor for the opportunity to serve but did not give specific reasons for their decisions.

In his letter, Ojo referred to his appointment letter dated 22 June 2026 and formally announced his resignation as commissioner.

“With reference to your letter dated 22nd June, 2026 (SP.S.662/2/VOL.IV/192), I respectfully write to formally resign my appointment as Honourable Commissioner for Budget and Economic Planning, with effect from today, 2nd November, 2026,” he wrote.

He described his time in government as an honour and said he appreciated the opportunity to serve the state.

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Oyeleke also tendered his resignation with effect from 2 November.

In his letter, he thanked Mr Makinde for the confidence reposed in him and the opportunity to contribute to the administration’s policies and development programmes.

He also expressed appreciation for the governor’s leadership, support and encouragement during his time in office.

“I remain grateful for the opportunity to have been part of this administration and to have contributed to its laudable achievements. I also remain committed to the peace, progress and development of Oyo State,” he wrote.

The latest resignations come amid a series of exits of political appointees and other officials from the Makinde administration in recent months.

It would be recalled that Segun Ogunwuyi resigned as the governor’s chief of staff on 12 October, a position he had held since July 2021. His resignation took immediate effect, although he did not state a reason for his departure.

A few hours after Ogunwuyi’s departure, Makinde appointed Bashorun Akinwole, popularly known as Wolekanle, as his replacement.

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On the same day, Tara Adefope, the Director-General of the Oyo State Due Process Office, also resigned from her position, while in late October, Kabiru Salami, the governor’s Executive Assistant on Security Coordination, also tendered his resignation.

Other officials who have left the administration include Funmi Arulogun, a Senior Special Assistant on Diaspora Matters, who resigned in August, citing personal and political considerations.

Babatunde Oduyoye, a member of the Oyo State Advisory Council, also resigned in July, while Fatai Owoseni, a former Commissioner of Police who served as the governor’s Special Adviser on Security resigned in May.

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Good morning! Nigerian Newspapers Headlines: Campaigns: OK Movement insists on independence

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1. The OK (Obi/Kwankwaso) Movement has declared that it will maintain its independent identity while mobilising support for the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) and its candidates ahead of the 2027 general election. 

Movement’s leader John Ughulu said the group remained committed to its original mission of securing the election of former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi and erstwhile Kano State Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.

Speaking in an interview, Ughulu dismissed suggestions that the movement’s decision to campaign independently would undermine its support for the NDC, insisting that the focus should be on achieving a common  political objective.

2. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election bid got a big boost at the weekend with endorsements from across the country. His achievement, the need for consolidation, national cohesion, and other reasons were adduced for the show of solidarity. The presidential election is billed for January 16, 2027

3. The Federal Government has vowed to crack down on inflated public contracts and procurement violations, warning heads of government-owned agencies, corporations, councils, authorities and commissions that they risk sanctions for breaching procurement regulations. The government raised the alarm over contract awards that exceed approved price benchmarks.

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4. The African Democratic Congress has rescheduled its presidential campaign kick-off in Sokoto State to Wednesday, November 4, despite alleging threats, attacks on its members and attempts by the state government to frustrate the event. The party said its decision to proceed with the campaign was a demonstration of its determination to exercise its constitutional rights despite what it described as growing political intimidation ahead of the 2027 general elections.

5. Troops of Operation Hadin Kai have neutralised four leaders of the Islamic State West Africa Province, including two Arabs, a commander and several of their foot soldiers in Kukawa Local Government Area of Borno State. The Army said they were neutralised on October 31, 2026, by combined troops of the Joint Task Force deployed to Kukawa following a massive ISWAP terrorists attack on their locations.

6. United States President, Donald Trump, has agreed to grant an immediate visa to the mother of a 15-year-old Ghanaian boy shot dead in New York, following a request by the city’s mayor, Zohran Mamdani.
Mamdani announced the development on Saturday after speaking with Trump, saying the visa would allow the teenager’s mother to travel to the United States and attend her son’s funeral.

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7. The National Drug Law Enforcement Agency has arrested two Nigerians based in Europe after they allegedly ingested 200 wraps of cocaine weighing 3.46kg while attempting to travel from Abuja to Paris, France. The suspects, identified as Aliocus Odife and Sam Blackborn, were arrested on Wednesday during the outward clearance of an Air France flight, AF 832, at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja.

8. Gunmen suspected to be kidnappers have abducted a 100-level female student of Plateau State University, Bokkos, while another person sustained injuries during an attack on off-campus student residential areas in Bokkos Local Government Area of Plateau State. It was learnt that the incidents, which occurred on Saturday evening at about 8:40pm, had heightened concerns over the safety of students residing outside the university campus.

9. An early-morning fire outbreak at the weekend destroyed no fewer than 110 buildings and structures at Kofar Ruwa Timber Market in the Kano metropolis. The Kano State Fire Service, while confirming the incident in a statement on Sunday, said the inferno razed 75 permanent buildings and 35 temporary structures across different sections of the market.

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10. The immediate past National Chairman of the Labour Party, Julius Abure, has declared his readiness to align with President Bola Tinubu or former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar ahead of the 2027 presidential election, while ruling out support for the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, Peter Obi.

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Relief as suspected Ebola cases in Adamawa tested negative

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The Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (NCDC) has said that there are currently no laboratory-confirmed cases of Ebola  in Adamawa.

The NCDC had on Saturday said that there were two suspected cases of Ebola in the north-east state, adding that the individuals had been isolated while contact identification was ongoing.

But in a statement on Sunday, the director-general of NCDC, Jide Idris,
said samples collected from the two individuals, who had symptoms suggestive of Ebola, tested negative after two rounds of testing.

“The report was received by the Adamawa State Public Health Emergency Operations Centre (PHEOC) in the early hours of 30 October 2026, following the identification of two individuals presenting with symptoms suggestive of Ebola, requiring further investigation,” the statement reads.

“Hence the alert that was released early this evening. The individuals have been isolated, and appropriate public health measures have been initiated.

“Samples were collected for laboratory testing to establish the cause of the illness. Fortunately, the samples turned out negative for EBV after two rounds of testing.”

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Idris commended the Adamawa health commissioner and his team for their “proactive approach”, adding that the NCDC was working closely with the state government to investigate the report of suspected Ebola cases.

“Currently, there is no laboratory-confirmed Ebola case in Adamawa state,” he said.

“The index case previously confirmed in the Federal Capital Territory remains the only confirmed case reported in Nigeria to date.”

He urged the public to remain calm and avoid sharing unverified information or speculating about the situation.

“The public is encouraged to obtain information from official government and public health communication channels,” he said.

Idris described Ebola as a serious infectious disease that requires prompt identification, appropriate clinical management and effective infection prevention and control measures.

“Anyone experiencing symptoms such as fever, severe weakness, headache, muscle pain, vomiting, diarrhoea or unexplained bleeding, particularly following relevant exposure, should seek immediate medical attention and inform healthcare workers of any relevant travel or contact history,” he said.

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“Individuals should avoid self-medication and follow the advice of healthcare professionals.”

Nigeriaconfirmed its first Ebola case in more than a decade on October 20, after a 42-year-old Swiss woman tested positive for the Bundibugyo strain in Abuja.

The patient, who had travelled from Uganda to Nigeria, was subsequently isolated and treated by Nigerian health workers.

On Monday, the federal governmentevacuated the patient to Switzerland aboard a medical plane.

Her husband, who was identified as a close contact, was also evacuated to Switzerland.

Ali Pate, coordinating minister of health and social welfare, said the patient was clinically much improved, stable, conscious and communicating, with her laboratory test results approaching baseline levels.

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