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Fitch tips Tinubu to win 2023 presidential poll

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The Presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has been tipped to win the 2023 presidential election.

The prediction was contained in a report by Fitch, a leading global rating company in the world.

Fitch in the report maintained that “Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split opposition vote will favour the All Progressives Congress.”

The report also disclosed that earlier surveys showing that Obi was ahead of his opponents, Bola Tinubu (All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), were mostly based on responses gathered online.

The report stated further that since only 36.0% of Nigerians use the internet (World Bank, 2020), “we believe that these results are skewed towards urban, affluent voters who are most likely to support Obi. We also highlight that these polls suggest that a large share of voters remain undecided.

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“Even if these surveys were accurate at a national level, Obi’s lack of support in Nigeria’s Muslim-majority North would make it difficult for him to win next year’s election. Indeed, the North is home to the majority of all voters and turnout in this part of the country tends to be relatively high, underscoring the importance of the Northern electorate.

“According to Nigeria’s 1999 constitution, a candidate can only be elected if they both receive the majority of overall votes and over 25.0% of votes in at least 24 of the country’s 36 states. Given that Obi’s Labour Party has limited infrastructure in the North, he will struggle to meet this second voting requirement.

“Indeed, the Labour Party is not even running candidates for the Senate and House of Representatives in many northern constituencies. Furthermore, the northern electorate historically tends to vote for presidential candidates from their region. With Obi being a Christian from the South (Anambra State), increasing his voter share in the North will prove challenging.”

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Fitch added that Peter Obi is unlikely to win the presidential election.

It said, “While we believe Obi is unlikely to win the election, he will probably do well for a third-party candidate. Indeed, a third-party candidate has never reached more than 7.5% of votes in Nigeria. However, due to his frugal reputation and large social media following, we expect Obi to get a higher share of the vote than previous third-party candidates.

“As such, we believe that Obi’s popularity will most likely split the opposition vote, at the expense of the PDP. The PDP’s candidate (Atiku Abubakar) is a Northerner and we believe that the party’s only route to victory is expanding its vote in the South West and North Central states while retaining large majorities in the Southsouth and Southeast.

“However, given Obi’s popularity in the south – especially the Southsouth and Southeast – we believe it is unlikely the main opposition party will be able to gain more votes in these parts of the country.

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“Indeed, we maintain our view that the APC’s Tinubu is best placed to win the presidential election. We expect that the party, which has nominated a Muslim-Muslim ticket, will repeat its strong performance in the North. Given that Tinubu is a former governor of Lagos, the party is also likely to improve on its performance in the South West. Furthermore, we expect Tinubu to benefit from incumbency advantages, with the APC having been in power since 2015.

“Protests and social discontent are likely to increase in the aftermath of a Tinubu win. Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, there has been an informal agreement that resulted in the presidency alternating between Northern and Southern states as well as between Christians and Muslims.”

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Oyo school abductions: Makinde signs executive order, restricts Okada 

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Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo state
has signed Executive Order No. 002 of 2026, aimed at strengthening security, enforcing vehicle registration regulations and improving traffic management across the state.

The governor also announced restrictions on the operations of commercial motorcycle operators, popularly known as “Okada” riders.

The development follows growing concerns over security challenges in parts of the state, particularly the continued captivity of teachers and pupils abducted in Oriire Local Government Area more than 20 days ago.

Speaking during the signing ceremony in his Office on Friday, Makinde said the executive order was designed to ensure strict compliance with existing laws governing vehicle registration and traffic regulations.

He noted that unregistered vehicles, motorcycles, and tricycles have increasingly been used to perpetrate criminal activities within the state.

According to the governor, security agencies often encounter difficulties tracking and investigating crimes involving unregistered vehicles because of the absence of identifiable registration details.

Governor Makinde explained that the executive order would provide a legal framework for the strict enforcement of vehicle registration requirements and other traffic regulations, including measures against driving against traffic and related offences.

According to him, designated enforcement authorities have been empowered to arrest offenders and impound vehicles, motorcycles, or tricycles found violating the provisions of the order.

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The governor said offenders apprehended under the executive order would be prosecuted in accordance with the law, while seized assets and properties would be handled through established legal procedures.

The governor linked the latest security measures to lessons learnt from recent security breaches, especially the abduction of schoolchildren and teachers in Oriire Local Government Area.

“We are living through very trying times; for over 20 days, our teachers and pupils have remained in captivity in the hands of terrorists. Our thoughts and prayers remain with them and with their families who continue to endure unimaginable pain and uncertainty,” He said. 

He assured residents that his administration remained fully committed to securing the safe return of all abducted victims and was working relentlessly with relevant security agencies to achieve that objective.

“As a government, we share in their anxiety and their hope, and we remain committed to doing everything within our power to secure the safe return of every one of them,” Makinde said.

The governor acknowledged the pain being experienced by the affected families and communities, stressing that the abducted teachers and pupils had neither been forgotten nor abandoned.

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While declining to disclose operational details for security reasons, Makinde maintained that extensive efforts were ongoing behind the scenes and urged residents not to mistake the government’s silence for inaction.

One of the major highlights of the executive order is the restriction placed on commercial motorcycle operations across Oyo State.

Makinde announced that commercial motorcycle operators would no longer be permitted to operate between 10:30 p.m. and 5:30 a.m. statewide, describing the measure as part of additional efforts to improve security and public safety.

The governor said the restriction became necessary as part of broader strategies to curb criminal activities and strengthen surveillance across communities.

He appealed to residents to actively support security agencies by providing timely information on suspicious movements and activities.

According to him, security remains a collective responsibility that requires the cooperation of all citizens.

“If you see something, say something, and authorities will do something,” he said, while reminding residents of the state’s toll-free emergency number, 615, for reporting security threats and emergencies.

Makinde also urged residents to remain vigilant, united and resilient despite the current security challenges, warning against allowing fear to undermine communal harmony and confidence.

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He commended security agencies and members of the state’s security outfit, Amotekun Corps, for their dedication, sacrifices and professionalism in responding to security threats across Oyo State.

The governor expressed optimism that with sustained collaboration among security agencies, community stakeholders, and residents, the abducted teachers and pupils would be rescued safely and security across the state would be further strengthened.

In his address at the event, the Attorney General of the state and Commissioner for Justice, Abiodun Aikomo, stated that the implementation of the order would be carried out by relevant agencies, including the Oyo State Road Traffic Management Authority (OYRTMA), the Nigeria Police Force and other law enforcement bodies, which would be required to submit periodic reports on enforcement activities to the state government.

To ensure transparency and accountability, Aikomo stated that the Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions would provide oversight on prosecutions arising from the enforcement exercise, while members of the public would be encouraged to report any misconduct by officials involved in implementing the order.

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Nigeria set to repatriate over 1,000 nationals from South Africa as violence continues

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The Federal government has kick-started plans to bring back home more than 1,000 Nigerians from South Africa as concerns grow over rising anti-immigrant sentiments and renewed xenophobic tensions in the southern African nation.

According to reports, Nigeria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed on Friday that screening for a voluntary repatriation programme began on Thursday, with authorities expecting over 1,000 Nigerians to participate.

Foreign ministry spokesperson Kimiebi Ebienfa told AFP that the final number of those seeking to return home had not yet been determined but noted that the figure was expected to exceed 1,000.

“Total figure not out yet,” he said. “We are expecting over 1,000 persons.”

The move follows a similar action by Ghana, which recently repatriated hundreds of its nationals from South Africa amid increasing fears over protests and violence directed at foreign nationals.

In a statement dated Tuesday, Nigeria’s High Commission in Pretoria said it had “negotiated waivers with host authorities” so that those with “immigration-related offences” would be allowed to leave on the eventual repatriation flights rather than be detained.

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South Africa, until recently the continent’s most industrialised economy, has long attracted workers from across the region.

But saddled with an unemployment rate of over 30 per cent, it has seen repeated spurts of xenophobic protests — including renewed violence in recent weeks.

The latest tensions have revived uncomfortable debates across Africa about xenophobia, migration and the gap between pan-African rhetoric and realities facing migration on the continent.

An ultimatum by one citizen-led group for illegal migrants to be expelled by June 30 has raised fears of violence after bouts of anti-immigrant unrest in the past that claimed dozens of lives.

Last month, Ghana repatriated some 300 people, the first batch of what authorities said was expected to be a total of about 800 Ghanaian nationals.

The South African government has said it is stepping up enforcement against undocumented immigrants but urged citizens not to take matters into their own hands.

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There are more than three million foreigners living in South Africa, or 5.1 per cent of the population, according to the statistics agency.

More than 63 per cent come from countries in the 16-member Southern African Development Community (SADC) bloc.

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Again, WAEC candidates write exams with Torchlight

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The 2026 West African Senior School Certificate Examination (WASSCE) got off to a dark start on Thursday across several centres in Oyo, Lagos, Ogun and Osun states.

Due to the late arrival of examination materials, several candidates were forced to sit for papers late into the evening.

On Monday, candidates reportedly waited several hours before writing the Physics Essay and Objective papers, which were scheduled for 2pm and 3:30pm respectively.

The delays persisted on Wednesday, with the General Mathematics Objective paper starting at 6:30pm in some centres and as late as 8:30pm in others, leaving candidates to finish the examination after 10pm.

The situation was said to be particularly severe in some centres in Ibadan, the Oyo state capital.

The first batch of the Agricultural Science practical examination was slated for 2pm, while the second batch was scheduled for 3:30pm.

However, as of 8pm, some centres in the state had yet to commence the examination.

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Due to the delay, candidates reportedly sat the examination under poor lighting conditions.

In a viral video, several students could be seen writing the examination with torchlights, mobile phone flashlights and solar-powered lamps.

The incident has since triggered widespread outrage on social media.

Mariam Kehinde, an X user, said that as of past 8pm on Thursday, her sister was yet to return home from the examination centre.

“What exactly is happening in this country sef? My sister left for her WAEC exam since morning and still hadn’t returned home,” she wrote.

“She called around 6pm saying their exam paper had just arrived at that time nitori olorun. She was still at the exam centre, and my mum even had to wait.”

Adedeji Adeyinka, another user, described Thursday’s conduct of the examination as “particularly disturbing”.

“Candidates writing Government completed the Theory paper and were instructed to wait for the Objective paper, only for the question paper to arrive more than FOUR HOURS later,” he posted.

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“How is this acceptable in a national examination? Even more shocking was the situation faced by students writing Agricultural Science Practical. An examination scheduled for 2:00 p.m. did not commence until about 9:00 p.m. in many parts of Oyo State.

“A seven-hour delay is not a minor inconvenience. It is a systemic failure.”

Another X user identified as Mum Ire also lamented the shortage of question papers during Wednesday’s Mathematics examination.

“Out of 75 candidates, only 35 Mathematics question papers were brought to the examination centre for the entire exam yesterday,” she wrote on Thursday.

“When did WAEC start operating like this?

“Now we are being told that the Agriculture Science practical questions are on the way at 8:10 pm.”

Joel Abodunrin also decried the shortage of question papers.

“WAEC’s been doing well until today,” he wrote on Wednesday.

“An examination hall of about 250 candidates and having Mathematics question papers for only 120.

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“Getting to tear the questions into pieces so that all could have something to do.”

Hakeem Olaoye, another user, said candidates were being made to write examinations at unreasonable hours.

“WAEC exam being conducted late in the evening.

“The Agric practical exam that was supposed to be held by 2pm just commenced some minutes after 7pm,” he wrote.

“Very disheartening indeed. Likewise for Mathematics. A school with 130 students was given 16 question booklets to share among.”

The development has raised concerns about the safety of candidates amid the country’s growing security challenges.

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