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Fitch tips Tinubu to win 2023 presidential poll

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The Presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has been tipped to win the 2023 presidential election.

The prediction was contained in a report by Fitch, a leading global rating company in the world.

Fitch in the report maintained that “Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split opposition vote will favour the All Progressives Congress.”

The report also disclosed that earlier surveys showing that Obi was ahead of his opponents, Bola Tinubu (All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), were mostly based on responses gathered online.

The report stated further that since only 36.0% of Nigerians use the internet (World Bank, 2020), “we believe that these results are skewed towards urban, affluent voters who are most likely to support Obi. We also highlight that these polls suggest that a large share of voters remain undecided.

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“Even if these surveys were accurate at a national level, Obi’s lack of support in Nigeria’s Muslim-majority North would make it difficult for him to win next year’s election. Indeed, the North is home to the majority of all voters and turnout in this part of the country tends to be relatively high, underscoring the importance of the Northern electorate.

“According to Nigeria’s 1999 constitution, a candidate can only be elected if they both receive the majority of overall votes and over 25.0% of votes in at least 24 of the country’s 36 states. Given that Obi’s Labour Party has limited infrastructure in the North, he will struggle to meet this second voting requirement.

“Indeed, the Labour Party is not even running candidates for the Senate and House of Representatives in many northern constituencies. Furthermore, the northern electorate historically tends to vote for presidential candidates from their region. With Obi being a Christian from the South (Anambra State), increasing his voter share in the North will prove challenging.”

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Fitch added that Peter Obi is unlikely to win the presidential election.

It said, “While we believe Obi is unlikely to win the election, he will probably do well for a third-party candidate. Indeed, a third-party candidate has never reached more than 7.5% of votes in Nigeria. However, due to his frugal reputation and large social media following, we expect Obi to get a higher share of the vote than previous third-party candidates.

“As such, we believe that Obi’s popularity will most likely split the opposition vote, at the expense of the PDP. The PDP’s candidate (Atiku Abubakar) is a Northerner and we believe that the party’s only route to victory is expanding its vote in the South West and North Central states while retaining large majorities in the Southsouth and Southeast.

“However, given Obi’s popularity in the south – especially the Southsouth and Southeast – we believe it is unlikely the main opposition party will be able to gain more votes in these parts of the country.

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“Indeed, we maintain our view that the APC’s Tinubu is best placed to win the presidential election. We expect that the party, which has nominated a Muslim-Muslim ticket, will repeat its strong performance in the North. Given that Tinubu is a former governor of Lagos, the party is also likely to improve on its performance in the South West. Furthermore, we expect Tinubu to benefit from incumbency advantages, with the APC having been in power since 2015.

“Protests and social discontent are likely to increase in the aftermath of a Tinubu win. Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, there has been an informal agreement that resulted in the presidency alternating between Northern and Southern states as well as between Christians and Muslims.”

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Good morning! Nigerian Newspapers Headlines: NDC dissociates itself from 59-member presidential campaign council unveiled by Obi-Kwankwaso movement

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1. The leadership of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) has distanced itself from the 59-member presidential campaign council constituted by OK Movement, a support group for Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the party, and his running mate, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.

In a statement on Saturday, Cleopas Moses, NDC national chairman, said the list did not emanate from the party and should be disregarded.


2. Former Senior Special Assistant Media and Publicity to the late President Muhammadu Buhari, Mallam Garba Shehu, said yesterday that the litigation instituted against Nigeria by Sunrise Power and Transmission Company at the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) tribunal in Paris was doomed from the outset. 
Garba, who personally attended the January 15, 2025 sitting of the tribunal in the French capital, said it was clear from day one that Sunrise and its promoter Leno Adesanya “would lose this case following the failure of all the witnesses they invited, including, of course, a beautiful lady from Senegal allegedly providing comfort to one of their government contacts.

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3. The Presidency yesterday knocked back economic proposals by the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. It asked him to take the proposals to Nigerians on his campaign trail rather than seeking to dictate how President Bola Tinubu should govern the country.

4. The Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) has forecast a high risk of riverine flooding across 15 states between September 19 to 25.
In its national flood advisory issued on Friday, the agency said rising river levels could trigger flooding in communities located on floodplains during the seven-day period.
The affected states are Imo, Cross River, Ebonyi, Benue, Anambra, Akwa Ibom, Lagos, Rivers, Edo, Kogi, Taraba, Delta, Bayelsa, Enugu and Abia.

5. Delta State Police Command has arrested a suspect after its personnel intercepted a vehicle conveying military camouflage uniforms, boots and hats, as well as cartons of suspected Tramadol and other illicit drugs. The vehicle, a green Toyota Sienna with registration number KP 527 AAA, was intercepted by operatives of the command’s Anti-Cult Unit, Asaba, along the Onitsha-Ondo route on Friday.

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6. Police in Rivers State have begun an investigation into the killing of a father of four, Kamadioye Krama, by gunmen in Emulation community, Abua/Odual Local Government Area. The spokesperson for the State Police Command, Blessing Agabe, confirmed the incident, stating that an investigation was ongoing to apprehend the culprits and bring them to book.

7. President Bola Tinubu has said that, from October 1, commuters across Nigeria must begin to see measurable reductions in transportation fares, as he has directed all 36 states to accelerate the National Affordable CNG Transit Programme. In a statement personally signed and released on Saturday, September 19, Tinubu said the push followed his August 27 meeting with state governors.

8. The Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps, NSCDC, has deployed Abdulhamid Kabara as the new commandant of its Niger State Command following the deaths of 37 suspected illegal miners in custody. Kabara replaces Suberu Aniviye, who was suspended as Niger NSCDC commandant after the 37 suspects died in Minna, the state capital, on Thursday.

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9. The Northern Senators Forum on Saturday called for an immediate, transparent and independent investigation into the deaths of 37 young Nigerians in the custody of the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps, NSCDC, in Minna, Niger State. It described the circumstances surrounding the occurrence as “deeply disturbing and unacceptable.”

10. The Minister of Interior, Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, has suspended the Niger State Commandant of the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), Suberu Aniviye, and 20 other officers following the deaths of 37 suspected illegal miners in the Corps’ custody. The officers were suspended pending the outcome of an independent investigation into the deaths, which occurred on Thursday, September 17, 2026. The Ministry of Interior announced the development in a statement signed by Tunji-Ojo on Saturday

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Keyamo, Sunday Dare knock Atiku for addressing President Tinubu as ‘Bola’

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  The minister of aviation, Festus Keyamo, and the special adviser to President Bola Tinubu on media and public communication, Sunday Dare, have criticised former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar for referring to the President as “Bola”.

Keyamo described Atiku’s use of Tinubu’s first name as “disrespectful and discourteous”.

“The continuous reference to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu by His Excellency, ex Vice-President Atiku Abubakar in his press conference earlier today as ‘Bola’ is very disrespectful and discourteous,” he wrote on X.

He said Atiku should recognise that the office of the president deserves to be accorded dignity despite political differences.

“He should know better that no matter your differences with Mr. President, for the sake of the country, that office should be accorded all the dignity it deserves,” Keyamo said.

Keyamo also described the tone of Atiku’s remarks as reflecting “pain and bitterness”, while referring to the former vice-president’s recent comment about Tinubu’s age.

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“After all, he made the outlandish claim the other day that Mr. President is older than himself. It is therefore a contradiction that he would also refer to an ‘elder’ by his first name,” he said.

Also, Dare, in a post on X on Saturday,  reacted to Atiku’s call for Tinubu to reduce petrol and electricity costs.

Atiku had on Friday asked Tinubu to use the remaining eight months of his administration to reduce the burden of petrol and electricity costs on households, workers and businesses.

He said the removal of petrol subsidy in May 2023 had contributed to higher transportation, food, logistics and energy costs. He also warned against phasing out electricity subsidies without addressing the impact on households and businesses.

Dare described Atiku’s manner of addressing the president as “the height of insolence”, accusing the former vice-president of political desperation.

“Alhaji Atiku’s manner of addressing President Bola Tinubu as Bola is the height of insolence. It is a clear descent into the abyss of unbridled desperation and an unraveling mind,” Dare wrote.

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“To seek to lecture a sitting president with the unbridled insolence of dropping his first name, petulantly barking instructions, and dictating how governance should be run within a truncated timeline is the height of political hubris.”

Dare defended the Tinubu administration’s economic policies, saying the president was undertaking reforms to address structural problems in the economy.

Dare also questioned Atiku’s criticism of government intervention in the economy.

“Atiku’s sudden conversion to the gospel of interventionism rings hollow,” he said.

He accused Atiku of using Nigerians’ economic difficulties for political purposes ahead of the 2027 elections.

“This is a desperate strategy by a perennial seeker of power who weaponizes transient national discomforts for electoral mileage,” Dare added.

“Nigerians do not need lectures on fiscal management from a political wanderer whose decades-long pursuit of the presidency has been defined by perpetual opportunism.”

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South Africa-based Nigerian lecturer found dead at her residence

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A Nigerian lecturer at the University of Fort Hare, South Africa, Ayodele Odularu, has been found dead at her residence in Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.

According to reports, Gbadebo Odularu, the brother of the deceased, said she died on August 16 at the age of 51.

A family member, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Punch’s Diaspora Tales that the lecturer’s death was not natural and the circumstances remained unclear to the family.

The family had asked for an investigation into her death.

In a GoFundMe statement published by Gbadebo on behalf of the family, the lecturer was described as someone who “dedicated her life to knowledge, discovery, and creating a better future for communities”.

The family said “although her journey on earth ended too soon, the impact of her life continues through the people she inspired, the knowledge she shared, and the communities she hoped to serve”.

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“Ayodele was far more than a sister. She was a cherished daughter, aunt, friend, mentor, scholar, and a source of encouragement, compassion, wisdom, and strength to everyone blessed to know her,” the statement reads.

“Her presence brought warmth into every room. She was known for her kindness, infectious laughter, generosity, resilience, and unwavering commitment to uplifting others. She had a rare ability to make people feel valued, heard, and inspired.

“Dr. Ayodele Odularu dedicated her life to knowledge, discovery, and creating a better future for communities.

“As an Independent Senior Researcher at the University of Fort Hare Community, she contributed meaningfully to academic research and the advancement of knowledge through her scholarly work.”

On Thursday, University of Fort Hare organised a memorial service in honour of the lecturer.

The lecturer died amid the violent attacks against Nigerians and other Africans in South Africa.

To date the Federal Government has 
facilitated the evacuation of 1,716 Nigerians from South Africa over Xenophobic attacks in the former apartheid country.

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