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UK economy falls into recession

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The economy of the United Kingdom (UK) has fallen into recession.

It fell into recession during the final three months of last year, official figures show, after the economy shrank by more than expected.

Gross domestic product (GDP) – a key measure of economic activity – dropped by 0.3% between October and December.

That follows a fall between July and September. The UK is considered to be in recession if GDP falls for two successive three-month periods.

The figure will be a blow Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Growing the economy was one of five pledges he made in January 2023. Meanwhile, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is less than three weeks away from unveiling his latest Budget.

Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said the data showed that Mr Sunak’s pledge to grow the economy was “in tatters”.

The government can use growing GDP as evidence that it is doing a good job of managing the economy. Likewise, if GDP falls, opposition politicians say the government is running it badly.

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If GDP is going up steadily, people pay more in tax because they’re earning and spending more. This means more money for the government that it can choose to spend on public services, such as schools, police and hospitals.

 

Governments also like to keep an eye on how much they are borrowing in relation to the size of the economy.

 

Treasury sources have confirmed to BBC News that the chancellor is looking at a larger pencilled-in squeeze on public spending as a way to deliver tax cuts in the Budget on 6 March.

 

Forecasts for the public finances have materially deteriorated in recent weeks as interest costs on UK government borrowing has increased. Final decisions have not been made.

 

Commenting on GDP, Mr Hunt said: “While interest rates are high – so the Bank of England can bring inflation down – low growth is not a surprise.”

 

He added that there were “signs the British economy is turning a corner”.

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But Mr Reeves said: “This is Rishi Sunak’s recession and the news will be deeply worrying for families and business across Britain.”

 

Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed that during the final three months of last year, there was a slowdown in all the main sectors it measures to determine the health of the economy, including construction and manufacturing.

 

The figure for the final three months of last year was worse than a 0.1% fall widely forecast by financial markets and economists.

GDP for the third quarter, between July and September fell by 0.1%.

 

Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said the latest economic figures “might nudge the Bank of England a little closer to cutting interest rates”.

 

“But we doubt the Bank will be too worried about what is likely to be a mild and short recession,” she added.

 

Recent figures showed that inflation – which measures the pace of price rises – remained at 4% in January.

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The Bank of England had been lifting interest rates to put the brakes on inflation but has kept them at 5.25% since August last year.

For the year as a whole, the economy grew by 0.1%.

 

“While it has now shrunk for two consecutive quarters, across 2023 as a whole the economy has been broadly flat,” said Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS.

 

Nevertheless, excluding the Covid years, annual growth last year was the weakest since 2009 when the UK and major economies were reeling from the global financial crisis.

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Suspend implementation of cybersecurity levy, Tinubu orders CBN

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President Bola Tinubu has ordered the Central Bank of Nigeria to suspend the implementation of the controversial cybersecurity levy policy and ordered a review.

This followed the decision of the House of Representatives, which, last Thursday, asked the CBN to withdraw its circular directing all banks to commence charging a 0.5 per cent cybersecurity levy on all electronic transactions in the country.

 

The CBN on May 6, 2024, issued a circular mandating all banks, mobile money operators, and payment service providers to implement a new cybersecurity levy, following the provisions laid out in the Cybercrime (Prohibition, Prevention, etc) (Amendment) Act 2024.

 

According to the Act, a levy amounting to 0.5 per cent of the value of all electronic transactions will be collected and remitted to the National Cybersecurity Fund, overseen by the Office of the National Security Adviser.

 

Financial institutions are required to apply the levy at the point of electronic transfer origination.

 

The deducted amount is to be explicitly noted in customer accounts under the descriptor “Cybersecurity Levy” and remitted by the financial institution. All financial institutions are required to start implementing the levy within two weeks from the issuance of the circular.

By implication, the deduction of the levy by financial institutions should commence on May 20, 2024.

However, financial institutions are to make their remittances in bulk to the NCF account domiciled at the CBN by the fifth business day of every subsequent month.

 

The circular also stipulates a timeframe for financial institutions to reconfigure their systems to ensure complete and timely submission of remittance files to the Nigeria Interbank Settlement Systems Plc as follows: “Commercial, Merchant, Non-Interest, and Payment Service Banks – Within four weeks of the issuance of the Circular.

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“All other Financial Institutions (Microfinance Banks, Primary Mortgage Banks, Development Financial Institutions) – Within eight weeks of the issuance of the Circular,” the circular noted.

 

The CBN has emphasised strict adherence to this mandate, warning that any financial institution that fails to comply with the provisions will face severe penalties. As outlined in the Act, non-compliant entities are subject to a minimum fine of two per cent of their annual turnover upon conviction.

 

The circular provides a list of transactions currently deemed eligible for exemption, to avoid multiple applications of the levy.

 

These are loan disbursements and repayments, salary payments, intra-account transfers within the same bank or between different banks for the same customer, and intra-bank transfers between customers of the same bank.

 

Exemptions include other financial institutions’ transfers to their correspondent banks, interbank placements, banks’ transfers to CBN and vice versa, inter-branch transfers within a bank, cheque clearing and settlements, letters of credit, and banks’ recapitalisation-related funding.

 

Others are bulk funds movement from collection accounts, savings, and deposits including transactions involving long-term investments such as treasury bills, bonds, and commercial papers, and government social welfare programmes transactions.

 

These may include pension payments, non-profit and charitable transactions including donations to registered non-profit organisations or charities, educational institutions transactions, including tuition payments and other transactions involving schools, universities, or other educational institutions, and transactions involving the bank’s internal accounts, inter-branch accounts, reserve accounts, nostro and vostro accounts, and escrow accounts.

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The introduction of the new levy sparked varied reactions among stakeholders as it is expected to raise the cost of conducting business in Nigeria and could potentially hinder the growth of digital transaction adoption.

‘Stop levy now’

Members of the House of Representatives on Thursday asked the Central Bank of Nigeria to withdraw the circular directing financial institutions to commence implementation of the 0.5 per cent cybersecurity levy, describing it as “ambiguous”.

 

The development was in response to a motion on the urgent need to halt and modify the implementation of the cybersecurity levy, moved by Kingsley Chinda.

 

According to the House, the CBN is to withdraw the initial circular, and “issue a more understandable one”.

 

Chinda had drawn the attention of the House to multiple interpretations of the CBN directive against the specifications in the Cybersecurity Act.

 

The House then expressed worry, that the Act would be implemented in error if immediate steps were not taken, to address the concerns around the interpretation of the CBN directive and the Cybersecurity Act.

However, sources with knowledge of Tinubu’s position on the issue said that the President was aware of the economic burden on Nigerians since his hardline economic reforms began last May, adding that he did not want to risk adding to the burden with more levies.

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A senior presidency official who preferred not to be named said, “The President is sensitive to what Nigerians feel. And he will not want to proceed with implementing a policy that adds to the burden of the people.

“So, he has asked the CBN to hold off on that policy and ordered a review. I would have said he ordered the CBN, but that is not appropriate because the CBN is autonomous. But he has asked the CBN to hold off on it and review things again.”

Another presidency official who preferred to remain anonymous as he was not authorised to speak on the issue said these discrepancies prompted the President to order a review.

“If you look at it, the law predates the Tinubu administration. It was enacted in 2015 and signed by Goodluck Jonathan. It is only being implemented now.

“You know he (Tinubu) was not around when that directive was being circulated. And he does not want to present his government as being insensitive. As it is now, the CBN has held off the instruction to banks to start charging people. So, the President is sensitive. His goal is not to just tax Nigerians like that. That is not his intention. So, he has ordered a review of that law.”

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Tensions soar over high cost of living in Benin Republic

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In the heart of Cotonou’s large Dantokpa market, Diane Makpenon’s family corn shop is less busy than usual these days.The business run by her mother like others in Benin’s economic capital has been slowing down as they struggle with rising prices.

 

The price of a kilo (2.2 pounds) of corn, one of the country’s most widely consumed foods, rose from 200 CFA francs (0.30 euro cents) to 450 CFA francs, before falling again to 400 CFA francs within a few days, according to traders.

 

A 120-kilo bag is now sold for between 33,000 (about 50 euros, nearly $54) and 36,000 CFA francs compared to barely 30,000 CFA francs before.

 

The increase in food costs in the small West African nation prompted Benin’s labour unions to call for an unprecedented series of protests against the cost of living — the first was dispersed by police firing tear gas and a second banned by the authorities.

A third planned for Cotonou on Saturday has been granted authorisation by city officials.

 

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Benin’s consumer prices and economy have been hit by fallout from the Ukraine war and by the closure of the border with major trading partner Niger to the north following a coup there last July.

 

Neighbouring Nigeria’s naira currency devaluation and abrupt end of a decades-long fuel subsidy have also impacted Benin’s fuel prices and trade.

 

“Going to the market has become torture. Everything costs us so much that we are helpless,” said Roberte Akododja, 42, owner of a bistro in Cotonou’s popular Gbegamey district.

 

“Even in restaurants, you have to pay more for usual meals or settle for small portions,” said Delphin Agossohou, a private administration executive.

 

Camille Segbedji, one of the leaders of the National Union of Secondary Teachers and Administrative Personnel of Benin (SYNEPAS), criticised the absence of a “fair agricultural policy” from the government in the face of declining purchasing power.

 

The World Bank said Benin’s economy in 2023 was still resilient despite the external economic shocks the country had to weather.

 

At a cabinet meeting this week, the government temporarily suspended shipments of cereals outside the country in a bid to ease pressure on prices.

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– In the streets –
Political protests have become less common in Benin since President Patrice Talon came to power in 2016, with some major opposition leaders either in exile or jailed.

 

Critics regularly accuse the cotton magnate of taking an authoritarian turn in a country once praised as a beacon of pluralism in West Africa.

 

Protesting over high costs, the main unions organised a demonstration in Cotonou on April 27 which was banned by the police who used tear gas to break up the rally.

 

Nearly 30 demonstrators and leaders of the trade union movement were arrested on that day, before being released a little later.

 

“The workers are struggling to make themselves heard. We have demands, but no way of expressing them,” explained nurse Arsene Olory-Togbe, aged 48.

 

On May 1, the Confederation of Benin Workers’ Unions (CSTB Benin), the country’s main trade union, rallied in a new demonstration, which was immediately banned by the authorities.

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This time, 72 demonstrators were arrested, including 21 placed in pre-trial detention for cannabis consumption.

 

“Our motivations relate to the unhappiness among citizens today. The high cost of living and the decline in purchasing power,” said Anselme Amoussou, general secretary of CSA Benin, the country’s second-largest trade union organisation.

 

Despite the ban and cancellation of demonstrations in recent days, trade unionists have once again called on the population to protest against the high cost of living on May 11 in the economic capital of Benin.

 

“No worker is happy to take to the streets, it is never light-hearted. But in certain situations it is necessary,” said teaching union representative Segbedji.

 

For CSA union leader Amoussou workers just wanted dialogue, a more human approach from the government and the guarantee of labour union rights.

 

“Wondering whether the peaceful march will be repressed is sad for a democratic country like Benin,” he said.

AFP

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ENI Deal: Oando set to boost oil output to 50,000 BPD

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It is no longer news that Oando Plc Group Chief Executive, Jubril Adewale Tinubu, has been instrumental in the transformation of Oando group into a multinational energy player across the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors.

 

Over the years, he has succeeded in positioning Oando as a leading integrated energy solutions provider in the continent of Africa.

From its current 25,000 barrels per day, Oando expects to double its oil equivalent output to 50,000 barrels per day upon finalizing its landmark deal with energy giant Eni.

This projection, disclosed by Oando Chief Operating Officer, Mr. Alex Irune to S&P Global Commodity Insights, in a recent interview, comes with the expectation of further scaling up to 100,000 barrels daily by 2029 through new drilling and security improvements.

The disclosure follows the announcement eight months ago of a historic agreement with Eni for the acquisition of 100 percent of Nigerian Agip Oil Company Limited (NAOC Ltd).

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The proposed deal, awaiting ministerial consent and regulatory approvals, would elevate Oando’s stake in OMLs 60, 61, 62, and 63 from 20 percent to 40 percent.

This reflects a shift in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, with indigenous firms taking over from departing International Oil Companies (IOCs).

Irune, in a recent interview, downplayed concerns about approval delays.

He stated that the focus is on “ensuring the country isn’t materially impacted” and that “indigenous players are able to take advantage of this opportunity.” Oando, poised to become a major domestic producer, is “on track” to close the deal this quarter, Irune added.

S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates the acquisition value at $500 million.

It covers four oil-producing blocks (OMLs), a joint venture with the Brass terminal, onshore exploration concessions, and power plants.

Eni currently holds a 20 percent operating stake alongside Oando and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), which holds the remaining 60 percent.

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The company’s dual listing on the Nigerian and Johannesburg Stock Exchanges underscores its regional and global reach.

Tinubu’s influence extends beyond Oando’s direct operations. Through Ocean and Oil Development Partners (OODP), co-owned with Omamofe Boyo, he indirectly holds a significant 66.67 percent stake in Oando to solidify his position in Nigeria’s energy sector.

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