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2023 Presidential Elections: How Tinubu got more votes from north-west than south-west — other facts of the election

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The recently concluded presidential election may have thrown up some new questions for political scientists in the country to resolve- how Bola Ahmed Tinubu, president-elect, was able to garner the votes in the northeast to beat his closest opponent in the election Abubakar Atiku, a Fulani.

For a start, he got more votes from the north-west — the largest voting geo-political grouping in the country — than from the south-west, his home zone.

Atiku Abubakar, a Fulani and candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), was naturally expected to be the “homeboy” in the north in a country where ethnic and religious identities usually have a defining impact on voting patterns.

Before the February 25 election, there were permutations that Tinubu’s failure to pick a Fulani as running mate — Kashim Shettima is Kanuri from the north-east — was going to hurt his chances up north.

This permutation was not totally wrong: Atiku won four of the seven north-western states — Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi and Sokoto. Tinubu, candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), picked two — Jigawa and Zamfara. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) took his home state, Kano.

However, in raw numbers crunched by TheCable Index, Tinubu beat Atiku in the north-west, scoring 2,652,824 votes compared to his opponent’s 2,197,824. Not only were Atiku’s margins in some of the states narrow, Tinubu took a whopping half a million votes in Kano alone.

In fact, Tinubu got 30 percent of his total votes from the north-west. That is almost one-third.

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LAGOS GAVE TINUBU HIGHEST VOTES
Tinubu got his second highest votes from his home zone, the south-west, but also got some embarrassment, conceding two goals as it were.

He lost Lagos, his state and place of comfort since 1999, to Labour Party’s Peter Obi. He also lost Osun to Atiku.

Despite the big blow, he still got his highest number of votes from Lagos state: 572,606. In a sense, every vote for LP was also a vote for APC because in times past, PDP might have benefitted and that would have increased Atiku’s tally.

The entire south-west gave Tinubu 2,542,979, second to the north-west.

There is a vital context — his second highest votes came from Kano where he also came second. The third was also from a state where he came second: Katsina.

Coming second in certain states is better than coming first in others. He was first in Ekiti state, for instance, but he got only 200,000 votes but he got more than double the figure in Kano to place second.

MISERABLE OUTING IN THE SOUTH-EAST

While his opponents picked states in the south-west, Tinubu got a miserable one percent of his total votes from the south-east, Obi’s home zone.

He got a total of 127,605 votes from the five states and did not score 25 percent in any of them.

South-east’s preference for Obi is unmissable: no other candidate met the 25 percent in any of the five states: Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo.

The zone used to be won by the PDP. This was the first election since 1999 that the PDP did not win the zone.

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Tinubu got his lowest votes nationwide from Enugu state — 4,772, followed by Anambra (5,111), Abia (8,914), Ebonyi (42,402), Bayelsa (42,572) and Imo (66,406).

Although Bayelsa gave him only 42,572 votes, he met the 25 percent requirement there. Meanwhile, Tinubu came second in Ebonyi and Imo, two states controlled by the APC.

FIRST OR SECOND IN ALL ZONES

Remarkably, Tinubu came either first or second in all the geopolitical zones.

He won only one zone in the south — the south-west — but came second in the south-south and south-east. South-south’s 799,957 votes for Tinubu contributed nine percent to his total haul.

In the north, Tinubu led in the north-west and north-central. Some pundits had tipped Obi to win the north-central because of the Christians who are thought to be opposed to APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket.

Tinubu picked four of the six north-central states — Kwara, Kogi, Niger and Benue — leaving Obi with two: Plateau and Nasarawa. Atiku did not win any state in the zone, unlike in 2019 when he got Plateau and Benue.

Atiku won the north-east, his home zone, claiming all but Borno, even leading PDP to victory in Yobe for what should be the first time since 1999. Tinubu won only Borno, where his running mate hails from.

Also noteworthy is that Tinubu came first in 12 states and second in 19 states. He came third only in five states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

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Although Atiku also came first in 12 states, he came second in only 15 states and third in nine states plus the FCT.

Tinubu got 25 percent in 30 states, while Atiku did in 21 states and FCT and Obi managed it in only 16 plus FCT.

The constitution requires the overall winner to have scored at 25 percent in at least 24 states and FCT, and Tinubu’s failure to secure 25 percent in the federal capital is likely to be a focus of the election petition by his opponents.

NORTH MADE TINUBU PRESIDENT

The major calculation in Atiku’s camp was that being the strongest northerner on the ballot, he was going to sweep the northern states to make up for the loss of the south-east and south-south to Obi.

It did not seem to have worked.

Although Atiku won nine of the 19 states, his total haul of 4.8 million votes fell short of Tinubu’s 5.3 million. That means Tinubu’s seven states gave him more votes.

Obi scored four million to lead in the south, claiming nine states while Tinubu’s 3.2 million votes from five states placed him on the second slot. Atiku won in three states, netting 1.75 million votes.

If the majority of voters in the north had not backed Tinubu and instead supported Atiku, the PDP candidate would have won the highest votes without the required 25 percent spread.

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American School refunds $760,000 of Yahaya Bello’s children fees to EFCC

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The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission has confirmed the receipt of the refund of $760,000 paid as advanced school fees by a former Kogi State Governor, Yahaya Bello for his children at the American International School, Abuja.

 

Dele Oyewale, spokesperson for the EFCC, confirmed the development to The Post on Saturday.

 

“The school has refunded the entire $ 760, 000 to the EFCC’s recovery account,” he said.

 

Earlier, the American International School of Abuja had asked the EFCC to provide “authentic banking details” for the refund of fees paid for the children of the former governor.

 

Bello allegedly paid $720,000 in advance as fees for five of his children from the coffers of the Kogi State Government.

 

The children are in Grade Levels 2 to 8 at the school.

 

On April 17, EFCC operatives laid siege on Bello’s residence in Abuja in an attempt to arrest him over an alleged N80.2 billion fraud.

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While the operatives were at the house, Usman Ododo, governor of Kogi, arrived at the property and reportedly whisked Bello away.

 

In a letter addressed to the Lagos Zonal Commander of the EFCC, the school said the sum of $845,852 has been paid in tuition “since the 7th of September 2021 to date.”

 

AISA said the sum to be refunded is $760,910 because it had deducted educational services already rendered.

 

“Please forward to us an official written request, with the authentic banking details of the EFCC, for the refund of the above-mentioned funds as previously indicated as part of your investigation into the alleged money laundering activities by the Bello family,” the letter reads.

 

It added, “Since the 7th September 2021 to date, $845,852.84 in tuition and other fees have been deposited into our bank account.

 

We have calculated the net amount to be transferred and refunded to the State, after deducting the educational services rendered as $760,910.84.

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“No further additional fees are expected in respect of tuition as the students’ fees have now been settled until they graduate from ASIA.”

 

The school said it would draw the attention of the anti-graft agency if there were any further deposits by the Bello family.

In a statement signed by Greg Hughes, AISA also said, “Ali Bello contacted the school on Friday 13 August 2021 requesting to pay the family school fees in advance until the students graduate from High School.”

 

The Chairman of the EFCC, Ola Olukoyede, had earlier revealed that the former governor transferred $720,000 from the government’s coffers to a bureau de change before leaving office to pay in advance for his child’s school fee.
Olukoyede revealed this during an interview with journalists on Tuesday in Abuja.

 

He said, “A sitting governor, because he knows he is going, moved money directly from government to bureau de change, used it to pay the child’s school fee in advance, $720,000 in advance, in anticipation that he was going to leave the Government House.

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“In a poor state like Kogi, and you want me to close my eyes to that under the guise of ‘I’m being used.’ Being used by who at this stage of my life?”

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Good Morning! Here Are Some Major News Headlines In The Newspapers Today: Military commander killed in ambush by bandits in Katsina

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1. Military commander of an army camp located at Sabon Garin Dan’Ali, in Danmusa local government area of Katsina state has been killed in an ambush. Sources said the incident happened Thursday evening and the corpse of the deceased, a major in the army, was deposited at a hospital in Katsina.

 

2. Movement would be restricted for the duration of today’s local government election in Oyo State, the State Government announced on Friday evening. The restriction will help officials of the Oyo State Independent Electoral Commission, OYSIEC, to conduct the poll without hindrance.

 

3. Senate President Godswill Akpabio, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Rt. Hon. Tajudeen Abbas and the Deputy President of the Senate, Senator Barau Jibrin, were among the dignitaries who attended the wedding fatiha of the children of emirs of Kano and Bichi, Alhaji Aminu Ado Bayero and Alhaji Nasiru Ado Bayero, on Saturday.

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4. President Bola Tinubu has approved the appointment of Mr. Jim Ovia, renowned banker and businessman, as the Chairman of the Board of the Nigerian Education Loan Fund, NELFUND. This is contained in a statement issued by Ajuri Ngelale, Special Adviser to the President on Media & Publicity, on Friday.

 

5. Governor Hyacinth Alia of Benue State, on Friday, urged his predecessors including Chief Samuel Ortom, to refrain from interfering in his administration, warning that he would not allow anyone to destabilise his government. Alia while briefing journalists on his return from the USA, Friday morning, said the past governors have had their own term.

 

6. The National Chairman of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, Dr Abdullahi Ganduje, has said the New Nigeria People’s Party, NNPP, led government in Kano State is behind the various protests against him in Abuja. Ganduje in a statement by his aide, Comrade Okpokwu Ogenyi, alleged that the Kano government had been hiring protesters from the streets, mostly Kwankwasiyya members, some of whom are from the North Central geo-political zone to demand his resignation.

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7. The American International School of Abuja has paid $760,910.84 to the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, from the $845,852 school fees allegedly deposited by former Kogi State governor, Yahaya Bello in respect of five of his children in the school.

 

8. Bandits have attacked the palace of the Emir of Zurmi, Alhaji Bello Muhammad Bunu, killing three people and abducting some residents of the town. The bandits, who stormed the town around 10pm on Wednesday, according to locals, also attacked the residence of the former Military Administrator of Nasarawa State, Colonel Bala Muhammad Mande (rtd).

 

9. The Nigeria Correctional Service has stepped up efforts to track down and recapture escaped inmates of the Suleja Medium Security Custodial Centre, Niger State. The Minister of Interior, Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, on Thursday, said the government would relocate a lot of correctional centres to create better infrastructure and security.

 

10. Men of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, assigned to tackle currency mutilation, dollarisation of the economy, and forex malpractice, have arrested 34 suspected currency speculators accused of foreign exchange fraud. This was made known in a statement shared on the commission’s website on Friday.

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UPDATED: Tinubu appoints Jim Ovia as chairman of education loan fund

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President Bola Tinubu has appointed Jim Ovia as the chairman of the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND).

 

Ajuri Ngelale, presidential spokesperson, announced the appointment of Ovia, chairman of Zenith Bank, in a statement on Friday.

 

Ngelale said Tinubu believes that Ovia will bring his immense wealth of experience to ensure that no Nigerian student suffers a paucity of funds in the quest for tertiary education.

 

On April 3, Tinubu signed the student loans amendment bill into law to provide Nigerians with quality and accessible education.

 

The law will allow Nigerian students in tertiary institutions to access low-interest loans for tuition and other academic needs.

 

Subsequently, the president appointed Akintunde Sawyerr as the managing director and chief executive officer (CEO) of the fund.

 

Tinubu also appointed Frederick Oluwafemi Akinfala as the executive director of finance and administration, while Mustapha Iyal will serve as the executive director of operations of NELFUND.

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