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2023 Presidential Elections: How Tinubu got more votes from north-west than south-west — other facts of the election

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The recently concluded presidential election may have thrown up some new questions for political scientists in the country to resolve- how Bola Ahmed Tinubu, president-elect, was able to garner the votes in the northeast to beat his closest opponent in the election Abubakar Atiku, a Fulani.

For a start, he got more votes from the north-west — the largest voting geo-political grouping in the country — than from the south-west, his home zone.

Atiku Abubakar, a Fulani and candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), was naturally expected to be the “homeboy” in the north in a country where ethnic and religious identities usually have a defining impact on voting patterns.

Before the February 25 election, there were permutations that Tinubu’s failure to pick a Fulani as running mate — Kashim Shettima is Kanuri from the north-east — was going to hurt his chances up north.

This permutation was not totally wrong: Atiku won four of the seven north-western states — Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi and Sokoto. Tinubu, candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), picked two — Jigawa and Zamfara. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) took his home state, Kano.

However, in raw numbers crunched by TheCable Index, Tinubu beat Atiku in the north-west, scoring 2,652,824 votes compared to his opponent’s 2,197,824. Not only were Atiku’s margins in some of the states narrow, Tinubu took a whopping half a million votes in Kano alone.

In fact, Tinubu got 30 percent of his total votes from the north-west. That is almost one-third.

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LAGOS GAVE TINUBU HIGHEST VOTES
Tinubu got his second highest votes from his home zone, the south-west, but also got some embarrassment, conceding two goals as it were.

He lost Lagos, his state and place of comfort since 1999, to Labour Party’s Peter Obi. He also lost Osun to Atiku.

Despite the big blow, he still got his highest number of votes from Lagos state: 572,606. In a sense, every vote for LP was also a vote for APC because in times past, PDP might have benefitted and that would have increased Atiku’s tally.

The entire south-west gave Tinubu 2,542,979, second to the north-west.

There is a vital context — his second highest votes came from Kano where he also came second. The third was also from a state where he came second: Katsina.

Coming second in certain states is better than coming first in others. He was first in Ekiti state, for instance, but he got only 200,000 votes but he got more than double the figure in Kano to place second.

MISERABLE OUTING IN THE SOUTH-EAST

While his opponents picked states in the south-west, Tinubu got a miserable one percent of his total votes from the south-east, Obi’s home zone.

He got a total of 127,605 votes from the five states and did not score 25 percent in any of them.

South-east’s preference for Obi is unmissable: no other candidate met the 25 percent in any of the five states: Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo.

The zone used to be won by the PDP. This was the first election since 1999 that the PDP did not win the zone.

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Tinubu got his lowest votes nationwide from Enugu state — 4,772, followed by Anambra (5,111), Abia (8,914), Ebonyi (42,402), Bayelsa (42,572) and Imo (66,406).

Although Bayelsa gave him only 42,572 votes, he met the 25 percent requirement there. Meanwhile, Tinubu came second in Ebonyi and Imo, two states controlled by the APC.

FIRST OR SECOND IN ALL ZONES

Remarkably, Tinubu came either first or second in all the geopolitical zones.

He won only one zone in the south — the south-west — but came second in the south-south and south-east. South-south’s 799,957 votes for Tinubu contributed nine percent to his total haul.

In the north, Tinubu led in the north-west and north-central. Some pundits had tipped Obi to win the north-central because of the Christians who are thought to be opposed to APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket.

Tinubu picked four of the six north-central states — Kwara, Kogi, Niger and Benue — leaving Obi with two: Plateau and Nasarawa. Atiku did not win any state in the zone, unlike in 2019 when he got Plateau and Benue.

Atiku won the north-east, his home zone, claiming all but Borno, even leading PDP to victory in Yobe for what should be the first time since 1999. Tinubu won only Borno, where his running mate hails from.

Also noteworthy is that Tinubu came first in 12 states and second in 19 states. He came third only in five states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

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Although Atiku also came first in 12 states, he came second in only 15 states and third in nine states plus the FCT.

Tinubu got 25 percent in 30 states, while Atiku did in 21 states and FCT and Obi managed it in only 16 plus FCT.

The constitution requires the overall winner to have scored at 25 percent in at least 24 states and FCT, and Tinubu’s failure to secure 25 percent in the federal capital is likely to be a focus of the election petition by his opponents.

NORTH MADE TINUBU PRESIDENT

The major calculation in Atiku’s camp was that being the strongest northerner on the ballot, he was going to sweep the northern states to make up for the loss of the south-east and south-south to Obi.

It did not seem to have worked.

Although Atiku won nine of the 19 states, his total haul of 4.8 million votes fell short of Tinubu’s 5.3 million. That means Tinubu’s seven states gave him more votes.

Obi scored four million to lead in the south, claiming nine states while Tinubu’s 3.2 million votes from five states placed him on the second slot. Atiku won in three states, netting 1.75 million votes.

If the majority of voters in the north had not backed Tinubu and instead supported Atiku, the PDP candidate would have won the highest votes without the required 25 percent spread.

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Tinubu, governors present as Bello Matawalle’s 10 children wed in Abuja

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President Bola Tinubu,  President Carlos Manuel Vila Nova of the Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe and several governors were among the dignitaries who attended the wedding of the children of Bello Matawalle, minister of state for defence.

Matawalle celebrated the weddings of his ten children, five daughters and five sons, at the National Mosque, Abuja, on Friday.

The minister gave away his daughters—Maryam, Safiyya, Farida, Nana Firdausi, and Aisha—while his sons—Ibrahim, Abdul Jalal, Surajo, Bello, and Fahad—also tied the knot.

The Islamic ceremony was officiated by Imam Luqman Zakariyah, who prayed for Allah’s blessings on the marriages and for success in the couples’ future lives.

Tinubu received the brides on behalf of the Matawalle family, welcoming them into their new homes.

The high-profile wedding attracted the crème de la crème of Nigerian politics.

Notable dignitaries in attendance included Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin and Ibrahim Masari, Senior Special Assistant on Political Affairs.

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Several governors were also present, including Ahmad Aliyu of Sokoto, Umar Namadi of Jigawa, and Nasir Idris of Kebbi.

In a post via X, Matawalle expressed his deep gratitude to Tinubu and Vila Nova for attending the ceremony, describing their presence as a rare and honourable privilege.

He further appreciated all dignitaries, family, friends, and well-wishers who joined physically or in prayers, wishing them safe journeys back to their destinations.

“Today, I am deeply honoured and profoundly grateful to His Excellency, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, for graciously serving as Wali at the wedding Fātiḥa of my children, held at the National Mosque, Abuja. I remain sincerely honoured by this rare privilege,” he wrote.”

“In addition, the presence of the President of the Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe, His Excellency President Carlos Vila Nova, added immense meaning to this joyous occasion, and I deeply appreciated it.

“I also wish to extend my heartfelt appreciation to everyone who joined us physically and in prayers to share in our joy. Your presence, prayers, and goodwill are truly cherished and deeply appreciated.

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“To my esteemed colleagues in the Federal Executive Council, Governors, members of the National Assembly, friends, family members, and well-wishers from across the nation, I am eternally grateful for the overwhelming love and kindness shown to me and my family.

“I also pray that Allah rewards abundantly all those who travelled from far and near to celebrate with us, and I ask Allah to grant you a safe and peaceful journey back to your respective destinations.”

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APC is my natural home, says Iyabo Obasanjo

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Iyabo Obasanjo, daughter of ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo, has confirmed her membership in the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Ogun state.

Iyabo spoke on Saturday during an interactive programme on Eagle7 Sports Radio 103.7 FM, anchored by Segun Odegbami.

Explaining her return to politics, Iyabo said the decision was driven by sustained pressure from supporters.

“Like I told you, a group of people who I did not bring together, I did not form them into a group, have been working, I think, for two years now,” she said.

“And then they started talking to me about a year ago, saying, ‘Look, we think you are the best candidate. We want you back.’”

She said she could not return to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), where she previously contested elections, citing internal crises.

“I could not go back to the PDP because of all kinds of turmoil,” she said.

Iyabo disclosed that she also considered the African Democratic Congress (ADC), but said the party was not yet fully organised.

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“The ADC was another option, but they don’t have their ducks in a row yet; they’re still working on it,” she said.

According to her, those who encouraged her return to politics are now members of the APC, a factor that influenced her decision after wide consultations.

“So, I think APC is my natural home. I don’t have any animosity towards any individual or any group within the APC,” she said.

“I feel more comfortable with all the actors I know within the APC… I feel more comfortable, actually, than with some of the actors I know in the PDP, and some of them are now in the ADC.

“So I think it’s my natural home. I feel quite confident and happy to have made that decision.

“I have an absolute 100% feeling it’s my natural home.”

Iyabo represented the Ogun central senatorial district between 2007 and 2011. She lost her re-election bid in 2011 to Gbenga Obadara of the then Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN).

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She later relocated to the United States, where she pursued an academic career and rose to the rank of professor. She is also a former commissioner for health in Ogun.

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Nigerian jailed eight years for $6m scam in US

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MAN JAILED FOR LIFE

A United States court has sentenced one Tochukwu Albert Nnebocha, a Nigerian national, to 97 months’ imprisonment for participating in a transnational inheritance fraud scheme that targeted elderly and vulnerable Americans.

According to a statement published on the US Department of Justice website on Friday, “a Nigerian National was sentenced today to more than eight years in prison for participating in a years-long conspiracy to defraud elderly and vulnerable Americans through an inheritance fraud scheme.”

The DOJ stated that Nnebocha, who is 44 years old, and his co-conspirators “operated a lucrative transnational inheritance fraud scheme that exploited vulnerable people in the United States” over a period exceeding seven years.

The statement read, “According to court documents, Tochukwu Albert Nnebocha, 44, of Nigeria, and his co-conspirators operated a lucrative transnational inheritance fraud scheme that exploited vulnerable people in the United States.

“Over the course of more than seven years, Nnebocha and his co-conspirators sent hundreds of thousands of personalized letters to elderly individuals in the United States, falsely claiming that the sender was a representative of a bank in Spain and that the recipient was entitled to receive a multimillion-dollar inheritance left by a deceased family member.”

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According to the US DOJ, victims were subsequently instructed to pay various fees before accessing the fictitious inheritance.


“The conspirators then told the victims that, before they could receive their purported inheritance, they were required to send money for purported delivery fees, taxes, and payments regarding the inheritance. In total, the defendant and his co-conspirators defrauded over 400 U.S. victims of more than $6 million,” the statement read,

The DOJ added that “in total, the defendant and his co-conspirators defrauded over 400 U.S. victims of more than $6 million.”

The statement disclosed that Nnebocha was arrested in Poland in April 2025 and extradited to the United States in September 2025.

He later pleaded guilty in November 2025 to conspiracy to commit mail fraud and wire fraud.

At sentencing, the court ordered 97 months’ imprisonment, three years of supervised release and restitution exceeding $6.8m to victims.

The department noted that “this is the second indicted case related to this international fraud scheme,” adding that eight co-conspirators from the United Kingdom, Spain, Portugal and Nigeria had previously been convicted and sentenced.

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The case was investigated by the US Postal Inspection Service and Homeland Security Investigations, with assistance from the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Legal Attache in Poland, INTERPOL, Polish authorities, the US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Florida, and the DOJ’s Office of International Affairs.

Senior Trial Attorney Phil Toomajian and Trial Attorney Joshua D. Rothman of the Criminal Division’s Fraud Section are prosecuting the case, according to the statement.

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