The presidency has faulted claim by
former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar that the Federal Government earned a N7.98 trillion oil windfall under the current administration, asking him to provide evidence to support the allegation.
Bayo Onanuga, special adviser on information and strategy to the president, in a statement issued on Sunday, described Atiku’s economic analysis “deficient” and challenged the former vice-president to substantiate his claims.
The presidency’s rebuttal comes in the wake of Atiku’s recent criticism of the Federal Government’s continued domestic borrowing despite what he described as “higher-than-expected” oil revenues.
In an earlier statement issued by Phrank Shaibu, his senior special assistant on public communication, Atiku said President Bola Tinubu administration’s economic management was “contradictory, opaque, and bereft of fiscal discipline”.
The former vice-president claimed that at an average production of 1.5 million barrels per day, Nigeria earned an estimated $42.7 million in additional revenue daily, amounting to about $5.76 billion, or approximately N7.98 trillion, between March 1 and July 14.
He argued that despite the revenue, the Federal Government raised about N5 trillion from the domestic bond market in the first half of 2026, representing nearly 80 percent of the amount borrowed during the corresponding period in 2025.
According to him, such aggressive borrowing would only be justified if government revenues had declined.
Rejecting the claims, Onanuga said Atiku’s economic analysis was deficient, insisting that “there is no such windfall of N7.98 trillion”.
“Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, in his typical pastime, has accused the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of fiscal recklessness, citing excess borrowing in the 2024 budget, questioning the removal of fuel subsidy, criticising tax reforms, concocting an oil windfall of N7.98 trillion, and suggesting that Nigeria is drifting economically,” the statement reads.
He said any incremental revenue from higher oil prices is reflected in the monthly FAAC figures.
He added that while the average Brent crude price for the first half of 2026 was around $90, compared with the $64.85 benchmark, average daily production fell short at about 1.6 million barrels per day against the projected 1.84 million barrels per day.
According to him, the production shortfall partly offset the price premium, while some crude volumes had already been pledged for loans used to finance the fuel subsidy that had since been removed.
“The convenient mistake many analysts make is to multiply the oil price by the daily crude production volume to determine revenue to the government. Such analyses ignore the cost of production, the share of crude belonging to the oil-producing companies and the impact of crude sale contracts such as forward contracts designed to hedge against price volatility,” Onanuga said.
“Atiku will do well to show the workings for his N7.98 trillion oil windfall.”
He also faulted Atiku for relying on what it described as outdated economic arguments.
“It is curious that in the middle of 2026, the opposition’s principal economic argument remains anchored to developments in the 2024 fiscal year,” he stated.
“Economies are dynamic. Reforms are processes, not events. Judging a reform programme solely by its earliest and most painful phase is like judging chemotherapy by the nausea it induces while ignoring the remission it seeks to achieve.”
Onanuga said the Nigerian economy had evolved significantly since the exchange-rate reset, with dollar-denominated GDP rising from about $253 billion to approximately $377 billion, while naira GDP increased from about N314 trillion in 2024 to around N530 trillion.
According to the presidential spokesperson, the reforms were never presented as painless but as necessary structural adjustments intended to correct long-standing distortions.
He also dismissed the claim that Nigeria has “over-borrowed”, arguing that the country’s revenue-to-GDP ratio remains among the lowest globally, limiting the government’s ability to fund public services without borrowing.
He added that recent reforms have begun to improve revenue mobilisation, broaden the tax base, reduce leakages, and strengthen public financial management.
“The debt debate should, therefore, examine not only how much Nigeria borrows but also whether the country’s capacity to generate and manage revenue continues to improve,” he said.
“At a mere 40% debt-to-GDP ratio and less than 60% debt service-to-revenue ratio (improving), the argument of overborrowing is alarmist and does not stick.”
The development comes amid an escalating war of words between the presidency and Atiku, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate for the 2027 elections.
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In recent weeks, Atiku has repeatedly criticised of Tinubu’s government and its economic reforms.
In his latest remarks, Atiku faulted the presidency for attacking John Onaiyekan, cardinal and former archbishop of Abuja, insteading of addressing concerns raised by the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of Nigeria (CBCN) about the state of the nation during a recent meeting with Tinubu at the State House in Abuja.
Responding to Onaiyekan’s remarks, Daniel Bwala, special adviser to the president on communication, said the cardinal’s comments did not represent the views of all Christians.
However, Atiku said the duty of Catholic bishops is not to flatter those in power, adding that the CBCN has always spoken truth to power.
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