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Fitch upgrades Nigeria’s credit outlook to positive, cites economic reforms

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Fitch, a global rating agency, has reviewed Nigeria’s outlook to positive from stable.

A credit rating is a measure of how likely a company or government entity can pay back its debts, based on an independent assessment of its financial health.

Fitch, in a statement on May 3, said the positive outlook partly reflects reforms implemented over the past year to support the restoration of macroeconomic stability and enhance policy coherence and credibility.

 

“Exchange rate and monetary policy frameworks have been adjusted, fuel subsidies reduced, coordination between the ministry of finance and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) improved, central bank financing of the government scaled back and administrative efficiency measures are being taken to raise the currently low government revenue, as well as oil production,” Fitch said.

 

Fitch said the reforms have lessened distortions stemming from previous “unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies,” leading to the return of sizeable inflows to the official foreign exchange (FX) market.

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“Nevertheless, we see significant short-term challenges, notably, inflation is high and the FX market has yet to stabilise, and the durability of the commitment to reform is to be tested,” the credit agency said.

“The CBN has stepped up efforts to reform the monetary and exchange rate framework following last year’s unification of the multiple exchange rate windows, and the large differential between the official and parallel market rates has collapsed.

 

“Average daily FX turnover at the official FX window has risen sharply from 2H23, and there has been clearance of USD4.5 billion of the backlog of unpaid FX forwards (the validity of the outstanding USD2.2 billion is being assessed by CBN), and weekly sales of FC to bureaux de changes (BDCs) have resumed (having been suspended since 2021).”

‘RETURN OF SIZEABLE NON-RESIDENT INFLOWS’

Fitch said increased formalisation of FX activity and monetary policy tightening has contributed to a notable rise in foreign portfolio investment inflows and a fast appreciation of the naira at the official FX window.

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According to the company, this followed the 71 percent “post-liberalisation depreciation between June 2023 and mid-March 2024”.

 

However, the credit rating agency said the exchange rate remains volatile.

Fitch said the continued lack of clarity on the size of net FX reserves is a constraint on Nigeria’s sovereign’s credit profile.

‘FURTHER MONETARY POLICY TIGHTENING ANTICIPATED’

In March, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) raised the monetary policy rate (MPR), which benchmarks interest rates, from 22.75 percent to 24.75 percent.

 

Fitch said it expects further increases in the CBN monetary policy rate in the second half of 2024 and “strengthening of monetary policy transmission, after the recent resumption of open market operations at rates closely aligned to the MPR”.

“We project inflation, which rose to 33.2% yoy in March due partly to exchange rate pass-through and rising food prices, to average 26.3% in 2024 and 18.2% in 2025, still well above our projected ‘B’ median of 4.5%,” Fitch said.

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In December 2023, Moody’s, a US-based rating agency, also revised its outlook for Nigeria from stable to positive.

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Two Oyo commissioner, special adviser resign

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Two senior officials in the Oyo State Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning have resigned their appointments from Governor Seyi Makinde’s administration.

The officials are Ayobami Ojo, the Commissioner for Budget and Economic Planning, and Simeon Oyeleke, the ministry’s Special Adviser on Budget and Economic Planning.

In separate letters dated November 2, and addressed to Mr Makinde, both officials said their resignations would take effect immediately, while thanking the governor for the opportunity to serve but did not give specific reasons for their decisions.

In his letter, Ojo referred to his appointment letter dated 22 June 2026 and formally announced his resignation as commissioner.

“With reference to your letter dated 22nd June, 2026 (SP.S.662/2/VOL.IV/192), I respectfully write to formally resign my appointment as Honourable Commissioner for Budget and Economic Planning, with effect from today, 2nd November, 2026,” he wrote.

He described his time in government as an honour and said he appreciated the opportunity to serve the state.

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Oyeleke also tendered his resignation with effect from 2 November.

In his letter, he thanked Mr Makinde for the confidence reposed in him and the opportunity to contribute to the administration’s policies and development programmes.

He also expressed appreciation for the governor’s leadership, support and encouragement during his time in office.

“I remain grateful for the opportunity to have been part of this administration and to have contributed to its laudable achievements. I also remain committed to the peace, progress and development of Oyo State,” he wrote.

The latest resignations come amid a series of exits of political appointees and other officials from the Makinde administration in recent months.

It would be recalled that Segun Ogunwuyi resigned as the governor’s chief of staff on 12 October, a position he had held since July 2021. His resignation took immediate effect, although he did not state a reason for his departure.

A few hours after Ogunwuyi’s departure, Makinde appointed Bashorun Akinwole, popularly known as Wolekanle, as his replacement.

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On the same day, Tara Adefope, the Director-General of the Oyo State Due Process Office, also resigned from her position, while in late October, Kabiru Salami, the governor’s Executive Assistant on Security Coordination, also tendered his resignation.

Other officials who have left the administration include Funmi Arulogun, a Senior Special Assistant on Diaspora Matters, who resigned in August, citing personal and political considerations.

Babatunde Oduyoye, a member of the Oyo State Advisory Council, also resigned in July, while Fatai Owoseni, a former Commissioner of Police who served as the governor’s Special Adviser on Security resigned in May.

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Good morning! Nigerian Newspapers Headlines: Campaigns: OK Movement insists on independence

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1. The OK (Obi/Kwankwaso) Movement has declared that it will maintain its independent identity while mobilising support for the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) and its candidates ahead of the 2027 general election. 

Movement’s leader John Ughulu said the group remained committed to its original mission of securing the election of former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi and erstwhile Kano State Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.

Speaking in an interview, Ughulu dismissed suggestions that the movement’s decision to campaign independently would undermine its support for the NDC, insisting that the focus should be on achieving a common  political objective.

2. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election bid got a big boost at the weekend with endorsements from across the country. His achievement, the need for consolidation, national cohesion, and other reasons were adduced for the show of solidarity. The presidential election is billed for January 16, 2027

3. The Federal Government has vowed to crack down on inflated public contracts and procurement violations, warning heads of government-owned agencies, corporations, councils, authorities and commissions that they risk sanctions for breaching procurement regulations. The government raised the alarm over contract awards that exceed approved price benchmarks.

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4. The African Democratic Congress has rescheduled its presidential campaign kick-off in Sokoto State to Wednesday, November 4, despite alleging threats, attacks on its members and attempts by the state government to frustrate the event. The party said its decision to proceed with the campaign was a demonstration of its determination to exercise its constitutional rights despite what it described as growing political intimidation ahead of the 2027 general elections.

5. Troops of Operation Hadin Kai have neutralised four leaders of the Islamic State West Africa Province, including two Arabs, a commander and several of their foot soldiers in Kukawa Local Government Area of Borno State. The Army said they were neutralised on October 31, 2026, by combined troops of the Joint Task Force deployed to Kukawa following a massive ISWAP terrorists attack on their locations.

6. United States President, Donald Trump, has agreed to grant an immediate visa to the mother of a 15-year-old Ghanaian boy shot dead in New York, following a request by the city’s mayor, Zohran Mamdani.
Mamdani announced the development on Saturday after speaking with Trump, saying the visa would allow the teenager’s mother to travel to the United States and attend her son’s funeral.

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7. The National Drug Law Enforcement Agency has arrested two Nigerians based in Europe after they allegedly ingested 200 wraps of cocaine weighing 3.46kg while attempting to travel from Abuja to Paris, France. The suspects, identified as Aliocus Odife and Sam Blackborn, were arrested on Wednesday during the outward clearance of an Air France flight, AF 832, at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja.

8. Gunmen suspected to be kidnappers have abducted a 100-level female student of Plateau State University, Bokkos, while another person sustained injuries during an attack on off-campus student residential areas in Bokkos Local Government Area of Plateau State. It was learnt that the incidents, which occurred on Saturday evening at about 8:40pm, had heightened concerns over the safety of students residing outside the university campus.

9. An early-morning fire outbreak at the weekend destroyed no fewer than 110 buildings and structures at Kofar Ruwa Timber Market in the Kano metropolis. The Kano State Fire Service, while confirming the incident in a statement on Sunday, said the inferno razed 75 permanent buildings and 35 temporary structures across different sections of the market.

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10. The immediate past National Chairman of the Labour Party, Julius Abure, has declared his readiness to align with President Bola Tinubu or former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar ahead of the 2027 presidential election, while ruling out support for the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, Peter Obi.

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Relief as suspected Ebola cases in Adamawa tested negative

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The Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (NCDC) has said that there are currently no laboratory-confirmed cases of Ebola  in Adamawa.

The NCDC had on Saturday said that there were two suspected cases of Ebola in the north-east state, adding that the individuals had been isolated while contact identification was ongoing.

But in a statement on Sunday, the director-general of NCDC, Jide Idris,
said samples collected from the two individuals, who had symptoms suggestive of Ebola, tested negative after two rounds of testing.

“The report was received by the Adamawa State Public Health Emergency Operations Centre (PHEOC) in the early hours of 30 October 2026, following the identification of two individuals presenting with symptoms suggestive of Ebola, requiring further investigation,” the statement reads.

“Hence the alert that was released early this evening. The individuals have been isolated, and appropriate public health measures have been initiated.

“Samples were collected for laboratory testing to establish the cause of the illness. Fortunately, the samples turned out negative for EBV after two rounds of testing.”

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Idris commended the Adamawa health commissioner and his team for their “proactive approach”, adding that the NCDC was working closely with the state government to investigate the report of suspected Ebola cases.

“Currently, there is no laboratory-confirmed Ebola case in Adamawa state,” he said.

“The index case previously confirmed in the Federal Capital Territory remains the only confirmed case reported in Nigeria to date.”

He urged the public to remain calm and avoid sharing unverified information or speculating about the situation.

“The public is encouraged to obtain information from official government and public health communication channels,” he said.

Idris described Ebola as a serious infectious disease that requires prompt identification, appropriate clinical management and effective infection prevention and control measures.

“Anyone experiencing symptoms such as fever, severe weakness, headache, muscle pain, vomiting, diarrhoea or unexplained bleeding, particularly following relevant exposure, should seek immediate medical attention and inform healthcare workers of any relevant travel or contact history,” he said.

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“Individuals should avoid self-medication and follow the advice of healthcare professionals.”

Nigeriaconfirmed its first Ebola case in more than a decade on October 20, after a 42-year-old Swiss woman tested positive for the Bundibugyo strain in Abuja.

The patient, who had travelled from Uganda to Nigeria, was subsequently isolated and treated by Nigerian health workers.

On Monday, the federal governmentevacuated the patient to Switzerland aboard a medical plane.

Her husband, who was identified as a close contact, was also evacuated to Switzerland.

Ali Pate, coordinating minister of health and social welfare, said the patient was clinically much improved, stable, conscious and communicating, with her laboratory test results approaching baseline levels.

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