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Tough times ahead as revenue falls by N1.89tn

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Following a projection by the Federal Government to spend a whopping sum of N6.7tn on fuel subsidy next year and a major shortfall in government oil revenue this year, economic and energy experts have predicted tougher days ahead for the economy, states and Nigerians.

The Minister of Finance, Zainad Ahmed, had on Thursday released the four-month fiscal report of the economy during a public consultation on the 2023-2025 Medium Term Expenditure Framework/FSP.

“Crude oil production challenges and PMS subsidy deductions by NNPC constitute significant threat to the achievement of our revenue growth targets, as seen in the 2022 Performance up to April,” Ahmed said.

“Bold, decisive and urgent action is urgently required to address revenue underperformance and expenditure efficiency at national & sub-national levels,” she noted.

Economists and petroleum experts projected that Nigerians, state govts and the economy would experience tougher days ahead going by the numbers.

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The gross oil and gas federation revenue for the first four months of 2022 failed to meet the expected target, falling from N3.12 trillion to N1.23 trillion, representing a 39 per cent performance, according to the Overview of 2022 Fiscal Outcomes and Update on 2022 Federation Revenue Performance presented by the finance minister.

Ahmed said the subsidy projection was based on business-as-usual or reform scenarios, noting that the first scenario assumed that subsidy would be retained and fully provided for.

The second scenario, she said, assumed that subsidy would remain up till mid-2023 based on the 18-month extension earlier announced, but only N3.36 trillion would be spent.

Both scenarios, however, contained opportunity costs in relation to net accretion to the federation account and deficit, she noted.

She said despite higher oil prices, oil revenue underperformed due to significant oil production shortfalls arising from oil production shut-ins resulting from pipeline vandalism and crude oil theft; and high petrol subsidy cost due to higher landing costs of imported products.

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She further said that the amount available for distribution from the Federation Account was N1.52 trillion within the first four months of the year.

Of this amount, she said, the Federal Government received N802.50 billion, while states and local governments got N407.04 billion and N313.81 billion respectively.

“Federal, State and Local governments received N107.67 billion, N358.90 billion and N251.23 billion respectively from the VAT Pool Account.”

She said as of April 2022, FGN’s retained revenue was only N1.63 trillion, 49 per cent of the prorata target of N3.32 trillion.

She said the Customs collections (made up of import duties, excise and fees, as well as federation account special levies) trailed target by N76.77 billion (25.42 per cent).

“In the MTEF, real GDP growth is projected at 3.75% in 2023, from a revised projection of 3.55% for 2022. Growth is expected to moderate to 3.30% in 2024 before picking up to 3.46% in 2025,” she said.

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On the other hand, inflation rate is projected to average 17.16 per cent in 2023, up from the revised average of 16.11 per cent for 2022, she said.

“Upward pressure on prices is expected to be driven by the current and lag effect of the global price surge due to the Russian-Ukraine war, domestic insecurity, rising costs of imports, exchange rate depreciation, as well as other supply-side constraints.”

She said overall, fiscal risks were somewhat elevated, following weaker-than-expected domestic economic performance and structural issues in the domestic economy.

Ahmed noted that revenue generation remained the major fiscal constraint of the Federation, stressing that the systemic resource mobilisation problem had been compounded by recent economic recessions.

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Two Oyo commissioner, special adviser resign

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Two senior officials in the Oyo State Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning have resigned their appointments from Governor Seyi Makinde’s administration.

The officials are Ayobami Ojo, the Commissioner for Budget and Economic Planning, and Simeon Oyeleke, the ministry’s Special Adviser on Budget and Economic Planning.

In separate letters dated November 2, and addressed to Mr Makinde, both officials said their resignations would take effect immediately, while thanking the governor for the opportunity to serve but did not give specific reasons for their decisions.

In his letter, Ojo referred to his appointment letter dated 22 June 2026 and formally announced his resignation as commissioner.

“With reference to your letter dated 22nd June, 2026 (SP.S.662/2/VOL.IV/192), I respectfully write to formally resign my appointment as Honourable Commissioner for Budget and Economic Planning, with effect from today, 2nd November, 2026,” he wrote.

He described his time in government as an honour and said he appreciated the opportunity to serve the state.

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Oyeleke also tendered his resignation with effect from 2 November.

In his letter, he thanked Mr Makinde for the confidence reposed in him and the opportunity to contribute to the administration’s policies and development programmes.

He also expressed appreciation for the governor’s leadership, support and encouragement during his time in office.

“I remain grateful for the opportunity to have been part of this administration and to have contributed to its laudable achievements. I also remain committed to the peace, progress and development of Oyo State,” he wrote.

The latest resignations come amid a series of exits of political appointees and other officials from the Makinde administration in recent months.

It would be recalled that Segun Ogunwuyi resigned as the governor’s chief of staff on 12 October, a position he had held since July 2021. His resignation took immediate effect, although he did not state a reason for his departure.

A few hours after Ogunwuyi’s departure, Makinde appointed Bashorun Akinwole, popularly known as Wolekanle, as his replacement.

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On the same day, Tara Adefope, the Director-General of the Oyo State Due Process Office, also resigned from her position, while in late October, Kabiru Salami, the governor’s Executive Assistant on Security Coordination, also tendered his resignation.

Other officials who have left the administration include Funmi Arulogun, a Senior Special Assistant on Diaspora Matters, who resigned in August, citing personal and political considerations.

Babatunde Oduyoye, a member of the Oyo State Advisory Council, also resigned in July, while Fatai Owoseni, a former Commissioner of Police who served as the governor’s Special Adviser on Security resigned in May.

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Good morning! Nigerian Newspapers Headlines: Campaigns: OK Movement insists on independence

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1. The OK (Obi/Kwankwaso) Movement has declared that it will maintain its independent identity while mobilising support for the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) and its candidates ahead of the 2027 general election. 

Movement’s leader John Ughulu said the group remained committed to its original mission of securing the election of former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi and erstwhile Kano State Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.

Speaking in an interview, Ughulu dismissed suggestions that the movement’s decision to campaign independently would undermine its support for the NDC, insisting that the focus should be on achieving a common  political objective.

2. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election bid got a big boost at the weekend with endorsements from across the country. His achievement, the need for consolidation, national cohesion, and other reasons were adduced for the show of solidarity. The presidential election is billed for January 16, 2027

3. The Federal Government has vowed to crack down on inflated public contracts and procurement violations, warning heads of government-owned agencies, corporations, councils, authorities and commissions that they risk sanctions for breaching procurement regulations. The government raised the alarm over contract awards that exceed approved price benchmarks.

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4. The African Democratic Congress has rescheduled its presidential campaign kick-off in Sokoto State to Wednesday, November 4, despite alleging threats, attacks on its members and attempts by the state government to frustrate the event. The party said its decision to proceed with the campaign was a demonstration of its determination to exercise its constitutional rights despite what it described as growing political intimidation ahead of the 2027 general elections.

5. Troops of Operation Hadin Kai have neutralised four leaders of the Islamic State West Africa Province, including two Arabs, a commander and several of their foot soldiers in Kukawa Local Government Area of Borno State. The Army said they were neutralised on October 31, 2026, by combined troops of the Joint Task Force deployed to Kukawa following a massive ISWAP terrorists attack on their locations.

6. United States President, Donald Trump, has agreed to grant an immediate visa to the mother of a 15-year-old Ghanaian boy shot dead in New York, following a request by the city’s mayor, Zohran Mamdani.
Mamdani announced the development on Saturday after speaking with Trump, saying the visa would allow the teenager’s mother to travel to the United States and attend her son’s funeral.

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7. The National Drug Law Enforcement Agency has arrested two Nigerians based in Europe after they allegedly ingested 200 wraps of cocaine weighing 3.46kg while attempting to travel from Abuja to Paris, France. The suspects, identified as Aliocus Odife and Sam Blackborn, were arrested on Wednesday during the outward clearance of an Air France flight, AF 832, at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja.

8. Gunmen suspected to be kidnappers have abducted a 100-level female student of Plateau State University, Bokkos, while another person sustained injuries during an attack on off-campus student residential areas in Bokkos Local Government Area of Plateau State. It was learnt that the incidents, which occurred on Saturday evening at about 8:40pm, had heightened concerns over the safety of students residing outside the university campus.

9. An early-morning fire outbreak at the weekend destroyed no fewer than 110 buildings and structures at Kofar Ruwa Timber Market in the Kano metropolis. The Kano State Fire Service, while confirming the incident in a statement on Sunday, said the inferno razed 75 permanent buildings and 35 temporary structures across different sections of the market.

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10. The immediate past National Chairman of the Labour Party, Julius Abure, has declared his readiness to align with President Bola Tinubu or former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar ahead of the 2027 presidential election, while ruling out support for the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, Peter Obi.

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Relief as suspected Ebola cases in Adamawa tested negative

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The Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (NCDC) has said that there are currently no laboratory-confirmed cases of Ebola  in Adamawa.

The NCDC had on Saturday said that there were two suspected cases of Ebola in the north-east state, adding that the individuals had been isolated while contact identification was ongoing.

But in a statement on Sunday, the director-general of NCDC, Jide Idris,
said samples collected from the two individuals, who had symptoms suggestive of Ebola, tested negative after two rounds of testing.

“The report was received by the Adamawa State Public Health Emergency Operations Centre (PHEOC) in the early hours of 30 October 2026, following the identification of two individuals presenting with symptoms suggestive of Ebola, requiring further investigation,” the statement reads.

“Hence the alert that was released early this evening. The individuals have been isolated, and appropriate public health measures have been initiated.

“Samples were collected for laboratory testing to establish the cause of the illness. Fortunately, the samples turned out negative for EBV after two rounds of testing.”

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Idris commended the Adamawa health commissioner and his team for their “proactive approach”, adding that the NCDC was working closely with the state government to investigate the report of suspected Ebola cases.

“Currently, there is no laboratory-confirmed Ebola case in Adamawa state,” he said.

“The index case previously confirmed in the Federal Capital Territory remains the only confirmed case reported in Nigeria to date.”

He urged the public to remain calm and avoid sharing unverified information or speculating about the situation.

“The public is encouraged to obtain information from official government and public health communication channels,” he said.

Idris described Ebola as a serious infectious disease that requires prompt identification, appropriate clinical management and effective infection prevention and control measures.

“Anyone experiencing symptoms such as fever, severe weakness, headache, muscle pain, vomiting, diarrhoea or unexplained bleeding, particularly following relevant exposure, should seek immediate medical attention and inform healthcare workers of any relevant travel or contact history,” he said.

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“Individuals should avoid self-medication and follow the advice of healthcare professionals.”

Nigeriaconfirmed its first Ebola case in more than a decade on October 20, after a 42-year-old Swiss woman tested positive for the Bundibugyo strain in Abuja.

The patient, who had travelled from Uganda to Nigeria, was subsequently isolated and treated by Nigerian health workers.

On Monday, the federal governmentevacuated the patient to Switzerland aboard a medical plane.

Her husband, who was identified as a close contact, was also evacuated to Switzerland.

Ali Pate, coordinating minister of health and social welfare, said the patient was clinically much improved, stable, conscious and communicating, with her laboratory test results approaching baseline levels.

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