By Yemi Olowolabi

The moment he took hold of the microphone, the audience rustled and hustled, bracing up for a bullish, no holds barred address that has become his label. Compulsive and sometimes, convulsive, Rivers State Governor, Nyesome Wike detonates verbal grenades even in formal gatherings.

On Saturday, April, 23, Wike, who is also a presidential aspirant on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, canvassed for votes before a cross section of PDP delegates in Awka, Anambra state ahead of the party’s presidential primaries slated for May 2022.

With a husky voice and hysterical flourish, the Rivers helmsman declared that the PDP would “cease to exist if the party fails to win the 2023 presidential election and that “if we need someone who can match the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, in the next election… It is me”. From Anambra to Adamawa, From Bauchi to Bayelsa, to Cross River. From Ebonyi to Enugu, from Kogi to Kaduna and Kano, Governor Wike has been working, walking, and winning on the need for him to become Nigeria’s next president. But beyond that personal ambition, he also believes that the next leader of Africa’s most populous nation must come from the Southern part of Nigeria. This is in the spirit of the rotational presidency, the unwritten rule that guarantees justice and fairness among various nationalities in the geographical expression called Nigeria.
Mohammadu Buhari, the incumbent President whose tenure expires next year hails from the North. By May 29, 2023, he would have completed the two-term tenure of 8 years.

According to Wike and other politicians from the south, power has to shift to the South. Unlike PDP, the ruling APC has zoned the position of the President to the South. Therefore, most of the serious contenders for the APC presidential ticket are from the Southern part. But not the same with the opposition PDP, where there are more presidential aspirants from the North than those from the South.
Wike’s relentless campaign for the southern presidency rings hollow in his party, especially from the point of view of Nothern leaders of PDP.

In a crucial consultative meeting with PDP delegates in Lafia, Nasarawa State on Tuesday March 28, Aminu Tambuwal, Governor of Sokoto State and also a presidential aspirant on the platform of PDP, described the call for power shift as unfair and unjust. ” In the interest of fairness, the presidential ticket should be zoned to the North” said Tambuwal, also a former speaker, the House of Representatives.

He argued that out of 16 years that PDP ruled, the South alone under Olusegun Obasanjo and Goodluck Jonathan did close to 14 years. And that Umaru Yar’Adua, a Northerner, did not spend more than two years before he died in office, thus paving the way for power to return to the South.
Tambuwal seems to have spoken the minds of PDP leaders from the North.

Though the party’s national leadership set up a zoning committee under the chairmanship of Governor Samuel Ortom, the committee seems hamstrung by the stream of heavyweight presidential aspirants from the North. Leading the pack is a former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, former Senate President, Bukola Saraki, Bauchi State Governor, Bala Mohammed and Tambuwal, among others.
The PDP aspirants from the South include former Secretary to the Federation, AGF, Senator Pius Anyim, Akwa Ibom State Givernor, Udom Emmanuel, former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi, and a host of other dark horses.

While speaking in Lafia, Tambuwal insisted that nobody should use what is going on in other parties to judge the PDP. From the synthesis of opinions in the PDP, zoning has been jettisoned. What some of the aspirants are pushing for is the emergence of a consensus candidate from the North. Whatever might be the outcome of such a push, the initiative underscores the North’s seriousness about power.

Four aspirants: Saraki, Mohammed, Tambuwal and Mohammed Hayatu-Deen, a former managing director of the defunct FSB International Bank, held consultations across the North on the necessity of consensus.

According to a report signed by Ango Abdullahi, elder statesman, the four aspirants visited Ibrahim Babangida, former military ruler, and “gave him the mandate to lead the process for a consensus, and agreed to abide by the outcome of the decision”.

Abdullahi added that after several consultations with northern stakeholders, a three-phase approach was taken.

“In the first phase, the opinions of six distinguished persons each from the three geopolitical zones were sought with regards to each of the four aspirants. Each of the zonal delegates were allocated two votes to choose the first and second choice making a total of 36 votes overall.

The outcome of that consultation was as follows: 7 votes for candidate (A) Aminu Waziri; 10 votes for candidate (B) Bala Muhammed; 10 votes for candidate (C) A-B Saraki; 5 votes for candidate (D) M Hayatu-deen,” the report reads in part.

“One of the elders deferred his votes on grounds of continuing consultations with traditional rulers and other major stakeholders. Two members did not cast their second ballots bringing the total to 32 votes cast out of 36.”

Abdullahi said the second phase of the exercise involved zonal assessment “based on regions which was concluded as follows: a. North Central – (Eight); b. North East- (Seven); c. North West – (Two); One is still under consultation”.

For the third phase of the exercise, the consultations involved looking into the past experiences of the PDP in terms of northern candidates.

Abdullahi added that he made recommendations to Babangida, which the latter approved.

“It was resolved that a leading aspirant from the North Central and one from the North East are to be presented as northern presidential candidates. The two would in turn be required to make further concessions so that in the end one of them would be presented as the consensus candidate, out of the four that presented themselves from the North,” he said.

“For the purpose of this exercise, it is hereby resolved that Gov Bala Mohammed from the North East and former Senate President Bukola Saraki from the North Central be presented as the northern consensus candidates for the moment.

“The successful aspirants are hereby urged to work together to make allowance for further consultations to foster understanding among themselves, and the PDP community to ensure a rancor free primaries in which all eligible candidates would be free to exercise their right.”

But in a swift reaction, Tambuwal rejected the exercise and its outcome on the ground that it negates the agreement reached at a previous meeting involving the four aspirants.

“The attention of Tambuwal Campaign Organisation (TCO) has been drawn to a news item that former Senate President, Bukola Saraki and Gov. Bala Muhammad of Bauchi state have emerged as consensus candidates from amongst the four of us announced at a meeting in Minna, Niger state,” a statement by Nicholas Msheliza, TCO director of mobilisation, reads.

“This is, to be candid and forthright, not correct. The correct situation is that the team met on Wednesday, 20th April, 2022, at Bauchi Governor’s lodge in Abuja and had a review meeting; and, unanimously agreed that the consensus arrangement was not working.

“The team further agreed that Sen. Saraki should come up with a draft statement on how to communicate this decision to the Nigerian public. This was the last time that members of the team sat and mutually agreed on anything. The proposed meeting to review and vet the statement scheduled for 10 pm of the same day was aborted unilaterally by Sen. Saraki via a WhatsApp message.

“However, on Thursday, April 21st, 2022, same Sen Saraki circulated yet another WhatsApp message suggesting that members of the team should head to Minna for a meeting on Friday. Gov. Tambuwal reached other members of the team and informed them that he stands by the decision of the team that the initiative is not working…

“Members of the public should be reminded that what was canvassed for was a consensus candidate and not consensus candidates. For the avoidance of doubt, Gov Tambuwal has submitted his presidential nomination forms and now that the quest for a consensus candidate out of the four has clearly collapsed, will go ahead and face screening and indeed contest the PDP presidential primary.

Other aspirants also rejected the consensus idea. À statement signed by Raymond Dokpesi, on behalf of the Technical Committee for the Actualisation of Atiku Abubakar Presidency, said there is a need to officially distance Atiku from the exercise because they have “been inundated with several calls and text messages from concerned party members”.

“It must be stated categorically and equivocally that Waziri Atiku Abubakar MA, GCON Vice President Federal Republic of Nigeria 1999-2007 was never a part of this purported consensus arrangement, neither did he at any time nor in any place, subject himself to any purported consensus process,” Dokpesi said.

“Therefore, Waziri Atiku Abubakar is not bound by any of the recommendations and conclusions of the purported report.

“As an avowed nationalist, Waziri Atiku Abubakar strongly believes that Nigeria has never been as divided as it is today. He strongly believes that any ‘consensus’ arrangement premised on any regional, zonal, ethno-religious, and/or sectional gang-up will further deepen and widen this divide, and worsen the wounds that urgently need to be healed.

“Consequently, Vice-President Atiku Abubakar is anxious to implement plans, policies and programmes that will rescue and rebuild Nigeria. This is his unwavering and resolute pledge and commitment.”
From all indications, it is clear that North will contest the 2023 presidential election, predictably on the platform of the PDP. Among the crowd of aspirants in the main opposition party, the formidable ones are from the North. Beyond his raw courage and vociferous dispositions, Wike doesn’t have the reach. Emmanuel of Akwa ibom and soft spoken Obi are not any better.

Having been a president of the senate and later, SGF, Anyim is widely known across the country but can he fund this tall ambition? How the Southern aspirants hope to wrestle the ticket from the Northern heavyweight pugilists like Atiku is yet to be seen. A former vice president and a serial contender for the office of the President, the Turaki Adamawa is having a last shot at the plum job.

He is expected to give his all to clinch the ticket. Though younger, Tambuwal is another man to watch in the North’s plot to retain power. His strident calls tallies with the mindset of the Northern power block who are bent on keeping the presidency for another eight years. But this reality is yet to dawn on Anyim, Wike, Obi, Emmanuel and other aspirants from the South.

In 1999, the presidential candidates of the two major political parties were from the South West. Olusegun Obasanjo of the PDP and Oluyemi Falae of the Alliance for Democracy, AD, jostled for the apex job and Obasanjo clinched it.

In 2007, the presidential candidates of PDP, Umaru Yar’Adua, and that of All Nigerian Peoples Party, ANPP, Mohammadu Buhari were from the North.
In 2011, Jonathan was PDP’s flag bearer, seeking to transit from acting President, following the demise of his boss. The North contended that it was still their turn to continue. Again, two Northern candidates Buhari of Congress of Progressive Change, CPC and Ribadu if Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN challenged the PDP. A similar scenario played out in 2015. And Buhari triumphed.

In 2019, again, the presidential race was left for the Northerners. it was between incumbent President Buhari and former vice president Atiku.
This is exactly why analysts and rational politicians are of the opinion that the 2023 presidential tickets should be left in the South.
But from the symphony of the major players in the North, especially those of the PDP, after Buhari’s eight years reign, another Northerner can continue.

Though APC zoned the office of the President to the South, politicians from this region seem more confused that being convinced. The spectacle of confusion is palpable in the South West where famous godfather and former Governor of Lagos State Bola Tinubu is being challenged by members of his political family. Tinubu who is a leading presidential aspirant on the platform of APC is fighting the battle of his life, especially with the vice president Yemi Osinbajo, Ekiti State Governor, Dr. Kayode Fayemi and Senator Ibikunle Amosun all in the race for APC ticket.

Apart from Tinubu who is running on the strength of his structure, the rest are believed to be banking on Buhari’s endorsement. Handlers of the VP brandish President Buhari’s tacit support. Interestingly, Amosun and Fayemi’s supporters gleefully lay claim to the President’s endorsement.

Really, who is Buhari supporting? PRESENT learnt that the President’s men actually believe that the president should come from the South East. Consequently, they sent out feelers that Buhari was thinking about the South East.

The argument is that Olusegun Obasanjo, representing the South West, spent 8 years while Ebele Goodluck Jonathan, representing the South South, spent 5 years as Presidents of Nigeria. The only region left out so far is the South East. As a result of positive feelers from the Villa, aspirants have come out of the South East.

They include Labour Minister and former Governor of Anambra State, Dr. Chris Ngige, former Governor of Imo State, Rochas Okorochas, former president of the senate, Ken Nnamani, Ebonyi State Governor, Dave Umahi and Minister of State for Education, Chukwuemeka Nwajuiba. Yet a section of the Aso Rock cabal is rooting for the South to complete their aborted tenure. They mooted the idea of Jonathan’s defection to APC with a view to getting the presidential ticket. The idea didn’t fly. Sensing widespread cynicism and outright rejection of the Jonathan option, this group of power brokers encouraged Transport Minister and former Governor of Rivers State Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi and, lately, Cross River State Governor, Professor Ben Ayade to join the race. The South South plot gained further strength in early March when Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Eufai came out to canvass for Amaechi directly or indirectly: ” I’m not a contestant for any office. I’m not an aspirant for anything,
“Rotimi Amaechi is interested in running for president…
“But of course, as you said, I did not want to run for governor, the president insisted that I should run. If the president insists I should do something, I have so much regard for him and his judgement that I will do it — even reluctantly.” He gave a hint that he would run as Amaechi’s running mate if Buhari says so. That gave the impression that El-Rufai knows Buhari’s mindset about the succession schemes.

Far from these speculations, PRESENT gathered that as far back as 2015, after his inauguration, Buhari had assured Amosun that her would hand over to him after serving out his tenure as president.

Unarguably, Amosun is the closest politician to the President from the South West, far closer than Tinubu, much closer than Osinbajo. It was Amosun who took Osinbajo to Buhari’s house the day the former Attorney General of Lagos filled his nomination form as the president’s running mate in 2015. In fact, the former Ogun State Governor has more nominees in Buhari’s government than any single individual in the country. Now, Amosun is joining the race to be the next president. Will Buhari keep his promise?

A close associate of Amosun told PRESENT that the senator and Buhari have been close confidants since the latter’s tenure as Chairman of Petroleum Trust Fund, PTF, while the former served as external auditor. ” President Buhari promised to hand over to Ibikunke Amosun and he has not said otherwise to date” Can this be true?

PRESENT learnt that the Northern cabal is indeed behind these stories and that they are actually encouraging many aspirants from the South with a view to precipitating a crisis that will ultimately pave the way for the emergence of another Northern President on the platform of the PDP. Those who hold this belief are quick to point out how some APC chieftains from the North are defecting the PDP. Recently, a serving senator representing Buhari Senatorial District in Kastina State, Senator Ahmed Baba Keita dumped APC for PDP. In Zamfara State, former Governor Abdulazez Yari and Former Senator Kabir Garba Marafa are now on their way out of APC to the PDP. Also, on Saturday April 16, Right Honourable Abubakar Sulaiman Speaker of the Bauchi House of Assembly defected from APC to PDP. Many of such defections are expected to follow from many states in the North. Whatever that means for the 2023 presidential election will be clearer as Nigeria inches close to the polls.

CULLED FROM PRESENTNG