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World Bank projects 3.7% growth for Nigerian economy in 2025

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The World Bank has predicted that Nigerian Gross Domestic Product will grow by 3.7 per cent in 2025.

 

The World Bank in its latest report titled “Global Economic Prospect: Subdued Growth, Multiple Challenges”, projected that the African largest economy will improve by 3.3 per cent up from a projected 2.9 per cent for 2023.

 

The report stated, “Growth in Nigeria is projected at 3.3 per cent this year and 3.7 percent in 2025—up 0.3 and 0.6 percentage points, respectively, since June—as macro-fiscal reforms gradually bear fruit.

 

“The baseline forecast implies that per capita income will reach its pre-pandemic level only in 2025.”

 

The Washington-based bank attributed the momentum to the gradual realisation of the current macro-fiscal reforms.

 

Since the assumption of office by President Bola Tinubu, he has initiated some reforms, which include the removal of fuel subsidies and foreign exchange rate harmonisation, with a focus on infrastructure development, manufacturing, and technology.

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The multilateral bank said that the country’s economic growth will be driven by agriculture, construction, services, and trade.

 

According to the 2023 State of Global Food and Nutrition Security, the number of Nigerians facing food insecurity has increased by 133 per cent in three years. The figure surged from 63.8 million people between 2014 and 2016 to 148.7 million people between 2020 and 2022.

 

“Inflation should gradually ease as the effects of last year’s exchange rate reforms and removal of fuel subsidies fade. These structural reforms are expected to boost fiscal revenue over the forecast period,” the World Bank declared.

 

It acknowledged that the Nigerian economy softened to an estimated 2.9 per cent in 2023 due to the disruptive currency demonetisation policy, which involved replacing old high-denomination naira notes.

 

“Growth in the region’s three largest economies—Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola—slowed to an average of 1.8 percent last year, holding back the region’s overall growth.

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“In the region’s other countries, growth softened to 3.9 per cent, partly reflecting a sharp decline in metal exporters’ growth alongside lower global metal prices. Moreover, intense and prolonged conflicts hampered growth in several countries.

 

“More broadly, post-pandemic recoveries were slowed by weakening external demand and domestic policy tightening to address persistent inflation,” it remarked.

 

Nigeria’s GDP was N60.66tn as of Q3 of 2023 after growing at 2.54 per cent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

 

The bureau said the growth rate was higher than the 2.25 per cent recorded in Q3 2022 and higher than the second quarter 2023 growth of 2.51 per cent.

 

However, there were concerns that rising public debt, persistent inflation, high cost of living, and a weak business environment, may continue to pose a downward risk to Nigeria’s growth prospects.

 

The country’s inflation rose to a 21-year high of 28.92 per cent in December 2023.

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Public debt climbed to N87.91trn in the third quarter of 2023, according to data from the Debt Management Office.

 

The United Nations in its ‘World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024’ report noted that African countries will continue to experience deteriorating fiscal positions against the backdrop of high public debt and a low domestic revenue base in 2023.

 

“Efforts to increase in-country oil refining capacity would likely reduce domestic fuel costs in 2024 and beyond. Energy subsidy reforms in Nigeria, Angola, and Gambia, as well as tax hikes in Kenya, Ghana, and South Africa, aim to provide the government with some relief from tight fiscal spaces.”

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Nigeria to stop petrol importation in June, says Dangote

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FUEL SCARCITY

 

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest person, says Nigeria will stop importation of petrol into the country by June.

Dangote spoke at the Africa CEO Forum Annual Summit in Kigali on Friday.

 

He said the country should end petrol imports by June when Dangote refinery commences production of the product.

 

“Right now, Nigeria has no cause to import anything apart from gasoline and by sometime in June, within the next four or five weeks, Nigeria shouldn’t import anything like gasoline; not one drop of litre,” he said.

 

Consequently, Dangote said the shortfall in the supply of petrol will be addressed not only in Nigeria but other West African countries.

“We have enough gasoline to give to at least the entire West Africa. We have enough diesel to give to West Africa and Central Africa,” he said.

 

Dangote said there is enough aviation fuel to meet the continent’s demands, as well as export to Brazil and Mexico.

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Speaking on the commencement of petrol production by the refiner, Dangote said “next month, we will be producing diesel and gasoline”.

 

He said the refinery would take most African crude grades.

 

DANGOTE SAYS REFINER WILL NOT FOCUS ONLY ON PETROLEUM PRODUCTS

Dangote said the refiner would not only focus on producing petroleum products.

 

“Today, our polypropylene and our polyethene will meet the entire demand of Africa and we are doing base oil, which is to do like engine oil,” he said.

 

“We are doing linear benzyl, which is raw material to produce LLB, which is raw material to produce detergent. We have 1.4 billion population and nobody is producing that in Africa.”

 

He said all the raw materials detergents are being imported into Africa, adding that the refinery is producing these raw materials to make Africa self-sufficient.

 

“As I said, give us three and a maximum of four years and Africa will not, I repeat, not import any more fertilizer from anywhere. We will make Africa self-sufficient in potash, phosphate (even if we don’t have enough, there is a lot in Morocco. But we are also looking at the opportunities,” he said

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“For our urea, we are at three million tonnes and in the next twenty months, we will be at six million tonnes of urea which is the entire capacity of Egypt.”

 

The business mogul said the refiner has 650,000 barrels per day, one million tonnes of polypropylene, 590,000 carbon black — the raw materials ink, dyes and others.

 

Dangote said the second phase of the refinery will start early next year.

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Your investments are safe in Nigeria – Tinubu assures Chinese investors

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President Bola Tinubu has assured Chinese investors that their investments are safe in Nigeria.

 

Tinubu also said his administration will always provide needed support to ensure businesses thrive.

 

The president spoke on Friday when he received a delegation led by Dai Hegen, chairman of the China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC), in Abuja.

 

This was contained in a statement by Ajuri Ngelale, special adviser to the president on media and publicity.

 

He said his administration welcomes the opportunity to expand business collaboration with the company as well as upgrade critical infrastructure and facilities for the mutual benefit of both parties.

 

“I have listened to you carefully. Your operation is consistent with our objectives. We are reforming the economy and taking crucial actions to ensure accelerated growth,” Tinubu said.

 

“The CRCC, with its subsidiary, CCECC, is a leading company and one of the best partners to work with. I am happy that you are partnering Nigeria in so many areas, particularly in rail construction.

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“We will do everything required to ensure that the rail link between the Ibadan end of the Lagos-Ibadan railway and the Federal Capital Territory is completed. We must connect the hinterland with our coastal seaports.

 

“I am proud of what I started as governor of Lagos state with the Lekki Free Trade Zone. It is now a flourishing environment. It is important to give you the assurance that we will do well to strengthen our partnership and relations.”

 

He commended the corporation, particularly its subsidiary, China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC), headquartered in Beijing, for its efforts in delivering value on infrastructural projects in the country.

 

‘SOLID MINERALS DEVELOPMENT NEXT FRONTIER FOR COLLABORATION’

Tinubu urged the corporation to also explore other avenues of cooperation, especially in solid minerals.

 

“The door is open for partnership, and partnership that will add value to both sides. Solid minerals development is the next frontier for mutually beneficial growth and collaboration,” he said.

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“We need each other. The sustainable path to success is a two-way street. We assure you that your investment is safe in our country. Once you succeed here, I know your reputation in other countries will be further strengthened.”

 

In his remarks, CRCC’s chairman highlighted some of the projects in the works and those completed by the corporation.

 

“In the railway construction sector, the Kano-Kaduna railway is 39 percent completed and is on course for completion in the second quarter of 2026,” Hegen said.

 

“The Abuja-Kaduna railway and Lagos-Ibadan railway have carried approximately nine million passengers since they were completed and commissioned.

 

“Freight services have officially commenced along Lagos-Ibadan axis since September 2023, and a total 180,000 tons of cargo have been transported.”

 

Hegen added that the corporation has signed investment cooperation agreements with 119 companies, stimulating investments of $3 billion, and creating 4,000 direct jobs for Nigerians, as well as paying $125 million in taxes.

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He said there are plans to increase investments in key areas, such as agriculture, power, solid minerals, natural gas, and renewable energy technologies to promote the economic development of the country.

 

Hegen extended the invitation of the Chinese government to the president to attend the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) to further deepen cooperation along mutual areas of interest.

 

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FAAC: FG, states, LGAs shared N1.2trn in April — up by N85bn

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The federation account allocation committee (FAAC) says the three tiers of government shared N1.2 trillion in April.

 

This was contained in a communiqué issued at the end of the FAAC meeting for May 2024 by Bawa Mokwa, director of press and public relations in the office of the accountant-general of the federation (OAGF), on Thursday.

 

The figure represents an increase of N85 billion compared to the N1.12 trillion shared in March.

 

FAAC said the allocation comprises distributable statutory revenue of N284 billion, distributable value-added tax (VAT) revenue of N466 billion, electronic money transfer levy (ETML) revenue of N18 billion, and exchange difference revenue of N438 billion.

 

The committee said the total revenue of N2.1 trillion was available in the month of April 2024, adding that the total deduction for the cost of collection was N80 billion; total transfers, interventions and refunds was N903 billion.

 

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A gross statutory revenue of N1.2 trillion was received for April, representing N216 billion higher than the sum of N1.01 billion received in March.

 

For VAT, the gross revenue was put at N500 billion, compared to N549 billion available in March — a difference of N48 billion.

 

The communiqué confirmed that from the N1.2 trillion total distributable revenue, the federal government received N390 billion, states got N403 billion and the local governments received N293 billion.

 

A total sum of N120 billion was shared with the benefiting states as 13 percent derivation revenue.

 

From the distributable statutory revenue of N284 billion, the communiqué stated that the federal government received N112 billion, states got N56 billion and the local governments received N43 billion., while N71 billion was given to the benefiting states as derivation revenue.

 

FAAC further said from the N466 billion distributable VAT revenue, the federal government received N69 billion, states received N233 billion and local governments got N163 billion.

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A total sum of N2.704 billion was received by the federal government from the N18 billion EMTL, states received N9 billion and local governments received N6 billion.

 

According to the committee, out of the exchange difference revenue of N438 billion, the federal government got N205 billion, states got N104 billion, and N80 billion was handed to local governments.

 

The sum of N48 billion was shared with the benefiting states as 13 percent derivation revenue.

 

In addition, FAAC said oil and gas royalties, companies’ income tax (CIT), excise duty, petroleum profit tax (PPT), EMTL and CET Levies increased significantly in April.

 

However, import duty and VAT recorded considerable decreases.

 

FAAC also said the balance in the excess crude account (ECA) for April was $473,754.

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