Fitch, a global rating agency, has reviewed Nigeria’s outlook to positive from stable.

A credit rating is a measure of how likely a company or government entity can pay back its debts, based on an independent assessment of its financial health.

Fitch, in a statement on May 3, said the positive outlook partly reflects reforms implemented over the past year to support the restoration of macroeconomic stability and enhance policy coherence and credibility.

“Exchange rate and monetary policy frameworks have been adjusted, fuel subsidies reduced, coordination between the ministry of finance and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) improved, central bank financing of the government scaled back and administrative efficiency measures are being taken to raise the currently low government revenue, as well as oil production,” Fitch said.

Fitch said the reforms have lessened distortions stemming from previous “unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies,” leading to the return of sizeable inflows to the official foreign exchange (FX) market.

“Nevertheless, we see significant short-term challenges, notably, inflation is high and the FX market has yet to stabilise, and the durability of the commitment to reform is to be tested,” the credit agency said.

“The CBN has stepped up efforts to reform the monetary and exchange rate framework following last year’s unification of the multiple exchange rate windows, and the large differential between the official and parallel market rates has collapsed.

“Average daily FX turnover at the official FX window has risen sharply from 2H23, and there has been clearance of USD4.5 billion of the backlog of unpaid FX forwards (the validity of the outstanding USD2.2 billion is being assessed by CBN), and weekly sales of FC to bureaux de changes (BDCs) have resumed (having been suspended since 2021).”

‘RETURN OF SIZEABLE NON-RESIDENT INFLOWS’

Fitch said increased formalisation of FX activity and monetary policy tightening has contributed to a notable rise in foreign portfolio investment inflows and a fast appreciation of the naira at the official FX window.

According to the company, this followed the 71 percent “post-liberalisation depreciation between June 2023 and mid-March 2024”.

However, the credit rating agency said the exchange rate remains volatile.

Fitch said the continued lack of clarity on the size of net FX reserves is a constraint on Nigeria’s sovereign’s credit profile.

‘FURTHER MONETARY POLICY TIGHTENING ANTICIPATED’

In March, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) raised the monetary policy rate (MPR), which benchmarks interest rates, from 22.75 percent to 24.75 percent.

Fitch said it expects further increases in the CBN monetary policy rate in the second half of 2024 and “strengthening of monetary policy transmission, after the recent resumption of open market operations at rates closely aligned to the MPR”.

“We project inflation, which rose to 33.2% yoy in March due partly to exchange rate pass-through and rising food prices, to average 26.3% in 2024 and 18.2% in 2025, still well above our projected ‘B’ median of 4.5%,” Fitch said.

In December 2023, Moody’s, a US-based rating agency, also revised its outlook for Nigeria from stable to positive.

1. The Court of Appeal, Abuja Division, on Friday, suspended moves by the Kogi State High Court to commit the Executive Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, Mr. Ola Olukoyede for contempt. The Appeal Court granted an ex parte motion for stay of proceedings of contempt application filed against the EFCC Chairman by the immediate past governor of Kogi State, Yahaya Bello.

2. An Ikeja Special Offences Court has adjourned the trial of the embattled former Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, governor, Godwin Emefiele, to May 9 over filing of additional proof of evidence served by the prosecution. Justice Rahman Oshodi adjourned the trial after taking arguments from the defendants’ counsel over additional proof of evidence of over 60 pages served on them in the morning by the prosecution.

3. Efforts for better efficiency in the electric sector received a boost on Friday as the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, NERC, announced the unbundling of the Transmission Company of Nigeria, TCN, with the establishment of the Nigerian Independent System Operator of Nigeria Limited, NISO.

4. The Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris has said that no journalist has been incarcerated under the Bola Tinubu administration for practicing responsible journalism, stressing that the media is largely free in Nigeria. He assured that the federal government would continue to protect the interests of journalists and will not compromise press freedom.

5. A Kano High Court has granted an ex parte order restraining the Inspector General of Police, IGP; Assistant Inspector General of Police, AIG Zone 1 Kano; Commissioner of Police, Kano, from arresting, and harassing the All Progressives Congress, APC, Ward officers at Abdullahi Ganduje Ward, Dawakin-Tofa local government area of Kano State.

6. The Benue State government has demolished 40 illegal shanties and structures in different locations in Makurdi, the state capital. The General Manager of the Benue State Urban Development Board, UDB, Tarnongo Mede, who led his team yesterday to carry out the demolition exercise, said it came as a result of shanties springing up in some parts of the state.

7. Nigerian fintech companies have warned their customers against trading in cryptocurrency or any virtual currency on their apps, threatening to block any account found engaging in such activities. At least four fintechs— Opay, Moniepoint, PalmPay, and Paga communicated this development to their customers on Friday.

8. A man, Hamza Mohammed, has been sentenced to death by hanging for stabbing another man to death during a free-for-all in Niger State. Mohammed and one Baba Usman (now at large) were said to have chased after the deceased, Isah Mohammed, caught up with him and stabbed him several times until he died.

9. Ahead of the September 21 gubernatorial election in Edo State, the state chapter of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), on Friday, inaugurated a 363-member campaign council, with Governor Goodwin Obaseki describing the Legacy Group as disorganised. The Legacy group, headed by the party’s vice chairman, South-South, Dan Orbih, had vowed not to work with Obaseki and the party’s candidate, Asue Ighodalo, unless their grievances were looked into.

10. The naira depreciated yesterday to N1,395 per dollar in the parallel market from N1,365 per dollar on Thursday. However, the naira appreciated in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market, NAFEM, to N1,400.4 per dollar.

A federal high court in Kano has issued an order restraining the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and the Kano Electricity Distribution Company (KEDCO) from implementing the new electricity tariff for Band A consumers.

Ruling on an ex parte motion on Thursday, Abdullahi Liman, presiding judge, made an interim order restraining NERC and KEDCO from going ahead with the impending tariff pending the hearing and determination of the motion on notice before it.

The order also restrained the defendant from intimidating and threatening to disconnect the applicants’ electricity supply for non-acceptance of the new increased tariff.

The suit marked FHC/KN/CS/144/2024 was filed by Super Sack Company Limited and BBY Sacks Limited.

Others are Mama Sannu Industries Limited, Dala Foods Nigeria Limited, Tofa Textile Limited and Manufacturers Association of Nigeria Limited (MAN).

The motion ex-parte was moved by Abubakar Mahmoud, counsel to the plaintiffs.

On April 3, NERC approved an increase in electricity tariff for customers under the Band A classification.

The commission said customers under the category, who receive 20 hours of electricity supply daily, would begin to pay N225 per kilowatt (kW) from April 3 — up from N66.

The sudden hike has been criticised by the house of representatives and other stakeholders who have asked NERC to suspend the implementation of the new tariff.