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G-5 states and the presidential election

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Voting in the five states governed by members of the Integrity Group (G5 governors) is not expected to follow the same pattern tomorrow.

The G5 governors, who are Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) members, opted out of the party’s presidential campaign, insisting that the national chairman Sen. Iyorchia Ayu, must step down as a condition to support the candidate, Atiku Abubakar, tomorrow’s election. They have insisted on power shift to the South or a southerner should be the national chairman.

The governors are Nyesom Wike (Rivers), Seyi Makinde (Oyo), Okezie Ipkeazu (Abia), Ifeanyi Ugwuayi (Enugu) and Samuel Ortom (Benue).

Their decision not to campaign for Atiku left the five states up for grab by other candidates.

Oyo

In Oyo State, Makinde’s refusal to campaign for Atiku will most likely tilt the outcome of the election more in favour of the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. Other leading presidential candidates are Atiku (PDP), Peter Obi (LP) and Rabiu Kwankwanso (NNPP).

As residents cast the ballot in the presidential election, the following factors will most likely shape voting patterns.

APC’s strength

The APC is still strong in Oyo State. The structure is still intact despite the aggrieved members that defected to Accord after controversial primaries. The new leader and governorship candidate, Sen. Teslim Folarin, has succeeded in bringing many back into the fold.

The party has been using the structure to campaign for the presidential candidate across the nooks and crannies of the state. This factor will surely earn Tinubu a lot of votes across the state.

Tinubu’s emergence

Since the formation of the APC in 2014, Tinubu has been leading the party in Southwest Nigeria. Now that he emerged the presidential candidates, even the aggrieved members who defected to Accord have vowed to vote for him as they believe in his leadership and ability to turn Nigeria around.

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Makinde’s open arms to Tinubu

While Makinde did not officially receive Atiku in Ibadan during his campaign, he received Tinubu and extolled his virtues, saying he has demonstrated capacity and paid his dues in Nigerian politics. The warm reception has been interpreted by his followers as being positive to his aspiration. He has always been saying at campaign grounds: “Vote for all our Senate and House of Representatives candidates. But for presidency, vote for unity, equity and inclusiveness.” Hence, most of Makinde’s supporters will vote for the APC candidate.

Ethnic loyalty

The fact that Tinubu is the only Yoruba among the top four candidates is a factor that will fetch him thousands of votes in Oyo State. A lot of Nigerians see his emergence as aligning with power rotation between Northern and South. Many believe that the presidency should come to the South for the purpose of unity and equity.

However, a PDP chieftain and one of the coordinators of Atiku-for-president campaign, Hazeem Gbolarumi, assured that Atiku will win. He said the level of work undertaken by the campaign team was such that no other candidate can defeat Atiku in Oyo State.

The crowd that received Tinubu in Ibadan for his campaign last Thursday gave a good signal for victory. The crowd endured eight hours of scorching sun to catch a glimpse of the APC candidate.

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Atiku will likely come second because of the factor of power rotation and division in the PDP. While Atiku has only few vote canvassers, Tinubu has them in large number, in Oyo State. The above factors will most likely weaken Atiku’s chances despite the fact that PDP is well rooted in the state.

Sen. Soji Akanbi, who is a major campaigner for Tinubu, said: “We have done our best. We have educated our people on the fact that Tinubu is the best candidate in terms of capacity, ability and courage. He is also the most experienced. He is the round peg in round hole, sentiment apart. He is the only candidate that can take Nigeria out of the woods.”

Obi will likely come third because of millennials who see him as the symbol of the kind of new generation politicians needed to rebuild Nigeria.

The NNPP candidate Rabiu Kwankwanso is expected to come fourth in the election.

Benue

In Benue State, Ortom did not only refuse to campaign for Atiku, but has reportedly declared support for Obi. His choice was interpreted to be in furtherance of the campaign for power shift to the South.

With his endorsement for the LP candidate, Benue has become a battle ground for the APC, PDP and LP candidates, given the strength of both APC and PDP in the state. Obi is now the third force that can not be wished away in the state.

Abia

The PDP is still very popular in Abia, despite Ikpeazu’s position. The party has governed the state from 1999. The first governor, Sen. Orji Uzo Kalu, who defected to the APC and won his senatorial seat. He has been pulling a lot of strings for the party in the state.

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Considering ethnic loyalty, LP’s Obi is expected to pull weight while core PDP members and supporters will stick with Atiku as a matter of party loyalty.

Besides, the governor has not campaigned against Atiku.

Enugu

The same factors that play out in Abia will also determine voting patterns in Enugu State. Both Atiku and Obi are expected to take the lead given the factors highlighted above. But the influence of a former governor Sen. Chimaroke Nnamani, and others who has declared support for Tinubu can not be wished away.

Rivers

Voting patterns in Rivers may surprise many Nigerians. Wike, who is leading the G5, has reportedly directed his supporters to vote for Tinubu of APC. Though observers hold that his directive will not bring a substantial change to the vote patterns, Nigerians are likely to see Atiku, Tinubu and Obi share the votes. In fact, APC is expected to poll higher number of votes this time unlike in 2019.

Wike opened his door to the three presidential candidates that went to campaign in the state. Atiku never went to Rivers for campaign.

The G5 position is sure to mar Atiku’s chances of clear victory in the five states, thereby threatening his overall victory in the election. After Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Kastina and Rivers, Oyo State ranks next in voting strength. In fact, both Rivers and Oyo states recorded between 700,000 and 800,000 votes for both APC and PDP candidates in the 2019 election.

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Good morning! Nigerian Newspapers Headlines: NDC dissociates itself from 59-member presidential campaign council unveiled by Obi-Kwankwaso movement

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1. The leadership of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) has distanced itself from the 59-member presidential campaign council constituted by OK Movement, a support group for Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the party, and his running mate, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.

In a statement on Saturday, Cleopas Moses, NDC national chairman, said the list did not emanate from the party and should be disregarded.


2. Former Senior Special Assistant Media and Publicity to the late President Muhammadu Buhari, Mallam Garba Shehu, said yesterday that the litigation instituted against Nigeria by Sunrise Power and Transmission Company at the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) tribunal in Paris was doomed from the outset. 
Garba, who personally attended the January 15, 2025 sitting of the tribunal in the French capital, said it was clear from day one that Sunrise and its promoter Leno Adesanya “would lose this case following the failure of all the witnesses they invited, including, of course, a beautiful lady from Senegal allegedly providing comfort to one of their government contacts.

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3. The Presidency yesterday knocked back economic proposals by the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. It asked him to take the proposals to Nigerians on his campaign trail rather than seeking to dictate how President Bola Tinubu should govern the country.

4. The Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) has forecast a high risk of riverine flooding across 15 states between September 19 to 25.
In its national flood advisory issued on Friday, the agency said rising river levels could trigger flooding in communities located on floodplains during the seven-day period.
The affected states are Imo, Cross River, Ebonyi, Benue, Anambra, Akwa Ibom, Lagos, Rivers, Edo, Kogi, Taraba, Delta, Bayelsa, Enugu and Abia.

5. Delta State Police Command has arrested a suspect after its personnel intercepted a vehicle conveying military camouflage uniforms, boots and hats, as well as cartons of suspected Tramadol and other illicit drugs. The vehicle, a green Toyota Sienna with registration number KP 527 AAA, was intercepted by operatives of the command’s Anti-Cult Unit, Asaba, along the Onitsha-Ondo route on Friday.

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6. Police in Rivers State have begun an investigation into the killing of a father of four, Kamadioye Krama, by gunmen in Emulation community, Abua/Odual Local Government Area. The spokesperson for the State Police Command, Blessing Agabe, confirmed the incident, stating that an investigation was ongoing to apprehend the culprits and bring them to book.

7. President Bola Tinubu has said that, from October 1, commuters across Nigeria must begin to see measurable reductions in transportation fares, as he has directed all 36 states to accelerate the National Affordable CNG Transit Programme. In a statement personally signed and released on Saturday, September 19, Tinubu said the push followed his August 27 meeting with state governors.

8. The Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps, NSCDC, has deployed Abdulhamid Kabara as the new commandant of its Niger State Command following the deaths of 37 suspected illegal miners in custody. Kabara replaces Suberu Aniviye, who was suspended as Niger NSCDC commandant after the 37 suspects died in Minna, the state capital, on Thursday.

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9. The Northern Senators Forum on Saturday called for an immediate, transparent and independent investigation into the deaths of 37 young Nigerians in the custody of the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps, NSCDC, in Minna, Niger State. It described the circumstances surrounding the occurrence as “deeply disturbing and unacceptable.”

10. The Minister of Interior, Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, has suspended the Niger State Commandant of the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), Suberu Aniviye, and 20 other officers following the deaths of 37 suspected illegal miners in the Corps’ custody. The officers were suspended pending the outcome of an independent investigation into the deaths, which occurred on Thursday, September 17, 2026. The Ministry of Interior announced the development in a statement signed by Tunji-Ojo on Saturday

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Keyamo, Sunday Dare knock Atiku for addressing President Tinubu as ‘Bola’

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  The minister of aviation, Festus Keyamo, and the special adviser to President Bola Tinubu on media and public communication, Sunday Dare, have criticised former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar for referring to the President as “Bola”.

Keyamo described Atiku’s use of Tinubu’s first name as “disrespectful and discourteous”.

“The continuous reference to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu by His Excellency, ex Vice-President Atiku Abubakar in his press conference earlier today as ‘Bola’ is very disrespectful and discourteous,” he wrote on X.

He said Atiku should recognise that the office of the president deserves to be accorded dignity despite political differences.

“He should know better that no matter your differences with Mr. President, for the sake of the country, that office should be accorded all the dignity it deserves,” Keyamo said.

Keyamo also described the tone of Atiku’s remarks as reflecting “pain and bitterness”, while referring to the former vice-president’s recent comment about Tinubu’s age.

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“After all, he made the outlandish claim the other day that Mr. President is older than himself. It is therefore a contradiction that he would also refer to an ‘elder’ by his first name,” he said.

Also, Dare, in a post on X on Saturday,  reacted to Atiku’s call for Tinubu to reduce petrol and electricity costs.

Atiku had on Friday asked Tinubu to use the remaining eight months of his administration to reduce the burden of petrol and electricity costs on households, workers and businesses.

He said the removal of petrol subsidy in May 2023 had contributed to higher transportation, food, logistics and energy costs. He also warned against phasing out electricity subsidies without addressing the impact on households and businesses.

Dare described Atiku’s manner of addressing the president as “the height of insolence”, accusing the former vice-president of political desperation.

“Alhaji Atiku’s manner of addressing President Bola Tinubu as Bola is the height of insolence. It is a clear descent into the abyss of unbridled desperation and an unraveling mind,” Dare wrote.

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“To seek to lecture a sitting president with the unbridled insolence of dropping his first name, petulantly barking instructions, and dictating how governance should be run within a truncated timeline is the height of political hubris.”

Dare defended the Tinubu administration’s economic policies, saying the president was undertaking reforms to address structural problems in the economy.

Dare also questioned Atiku’s criticism of government intervention in the economy.

“Atiku’s sudden conversion to the gospel of interventionism rings hollow,” he said.

He accused Atiku of using Nigerians’ economic difficulties for political purposes ahead of the 2027 elections.

“This is a desperate strategy by a perennial seeker of power who weaponizes transient national discomforts for electoral mileage,” Dare added.

“Nigerians do not need lectures on fiscal management from a political wanderer whose decades-long pursuit of the presidency has been defined by perpetual opportunism.”

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South Africa-based Nigerian lecturer found dead at her residence

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A Nigerian lecturer at the University of Fort Hare, South Africa, Ayodele Odularu, has been found dead at her residence in Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.

According to reports, Gbadebo Odularu, the brother of the deceased, said she died on August 16 at the age of 51.

A family member, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Punch’s Diaspora Tales that the lecturer’s death was not natural and the circumstances remained unclear to the family.

The family had asked for an investigation into her death.

In a GoFundMe statement published by Gbadebo on behalf of the family, the lecturer was described as someone who “dedicated her life to knowledge, discovery, and creating a better future for communities”.

The family said “although her journey on earth ended too soon, the impact of her life continues through the people she inspired, the knowledge she shared, and the communities she hoped to serve”.

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“Ayodele was far more than a sister. She was a cherished daughter, aunt, friend, mentor, scholar, and a source of encouragement, compassion, wisdom, and strength to everyone blessed to know her,” the statement reads.

“Her presence brought warmth into every room. She was known for her kindness, infectious laughter, generosity, resilience, and unwavering commitment to uplifting others. She had a rare ability to make people feel valued, heard, and inspired.

“Dr. Ayodele Odularu dedicated her life to knowledge, discovery, and creating a better future for communities.

“As an Independent Senior Researcher at the University of Fort Hare Community, she contributed meaningfully to academic research and the advancement of knowledge through her scholarly work.”

On Thursday, University of Fort Hare organised a memorial service in honour of the lecturer.

The lecturer died amid the violent attacks against Nigerians and other Africans in South Africa.

To date the Federal Government has 
facilitated the evacuation of 1,716 Nigerians from South Africa over Xenophobic attacks in the former apartheid country.

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