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G-5 states and the presidential election

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Voting in the five states governed by members of the Integrity Group (G5 governors) is not expected to follow the same pattern tomorrow.

The G5 governors, who are Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) members, opted out of the party’s presidential campaign, insisting that the national chairman Sen. Iyorchia Ayu, must step down as a condition to support the candidate, Atiku Abubakar, tomorrow’s election. They have insisted on power shift to the South or a southerner should be the national chairman.

The governors are Nyesom Wike (Rivers), Seyi Makinde (Oyo), Okezie Ipkeazu (Abia), Ifeanyi Ugwuayi (Enugu) and Samuel Ortom (Benue).

Their decision not to campaign for Atiku left the five states up for grab by other candidates.

Oyo

In Oyo State, Makinde’s refusal to campaign for Atiku will most likely tilt the outcome of the election more in favour of the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. Other leading presidential candidates are Atiku (PDP), Peter Obi (LP) and Rabiu Kwankwanso (NNPP).

As residents cast the ballot in the presidential election, the following factors will most likely shape voting patterns.

APC’s strength

The APC is still strong in Oyo State. The structure is still intact despite the aggrieved members that defected to Accord after controversial primaries. The new leader and governorship candidate, Sen. Teslim Folarin, has succeeded in bringing many back into the fold.

The party has been using the structure to campaign for the presidential candidate across the nooks and crannies of the state. This factor will surely earn Tinubu a lot of votes across the state.

Tinubu’s emergence

Since the formation of the APC in 2014, Tinubu has been leading the party in Southwest Nigeria. Now that he emerged the presidential candidates, even the aggrieved members who defected to Accord have vowed to vote for him as they believe in his leadership and ability to turn Nigeria around.

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Makinde’s open arms to Tinubu

While Makinde did not officially receive Atiku in Ibadan during his campaign, he received Tinubu and extolled his virtues, saying he has demonstrated capacity and paid his dues in Nigerian politics. The warm reception has been interpreted by his followers as being positive to his aspiration. He has always been saying at campaign grounds: “Vote for all our Senate and House of Representatives candidates. But for presidency, vote for unity, equity and inclusiveness.” Hence, most of Makinde’s supporters will vote for the APC candidate.

Ethnic loyalty

The fact that Tinubu is the only Yoruba among the top four candidates is a factor that will fetch him thousands of votes in Oyo State. A lot of Nigerians see his emergence as aligning with power rotation between Northern and South. Many believe that the presidency should come to the South for the purpose of unity and equity.

However, a PDP chieftain and one of the coordinators of Atiku-for-president campaign, Hazeem Gbolarumi, assured that Atiku will win. He said the level of work undertaken by the campaign team was such that no other candidate can defeat Atiku in Oyo State.

The crowd that received Tinubu in Ibadan for his campaign last Thursday gave a good signal for victory. The crowd endured eight hours of scorching sun to catch a glimpse of the APC candidate.

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Atiku will likely come second because of the factor of power rotation and division in the PDP. While Atiku has only few vote canvassers, Tinubu has them in large number, in Oyo State. The above factors will most likely weaken Atiku’s chances despite the fact that PDP is well rooted in the state.

Sen. Soji Akanbi, who is a major campaigner for Tinubu, said: “We have done our best. We have educated our people on the fact that Tinubu is the best candidate in terms of capacity, ability and courage. He is also the most experienced. He is the round peg in round hole, sentiment apart. He is the only candidate that can take Nigeria out of the woods.”

Obi will likely come third because of millennials who see him as the symbol of the kind of new generation politicians needed to rebuild Nigeria.

The NNPP candidate Rabiu Kwankwanso is expected to come fourth in the election.

Benue

In Benue State, Ortom did not only refuse to campaign for Atiku, but has reportedly declared support for Obi. His choice was interpreted to be in furtherance of the campaign for power shift to the South.

With his endorsement for the LP candidate, Benue has become a battle ground for the APC, PDP and LP candidates, given the strength of both APC and PDP in the state. Obi is now the third force that can not be wished away in the state.

Abia

The PDP is still very popular in Abia, despite Ikpeazu’s position. The party has governed the state from 1999. The first governor, Sen. Orji Uzo Kalu, who defected to the APC and won his senatorial seat. He has been pulling a lot of strings for the party in the state.

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Considering ethnic loyalty, LP’s Obi is expected to pull weight while core PDP members and supporters will stick with Atiku as a matter of party loyalty.

Besides, the governor has not campaigned against Atiku.

Enugu

The same factors that play out in Abia will also determine voting patterns in Enugu State. Both Atiku and Obi are expected to take the lead given the factors highlighted above. But the influence of a former governor Sen. Chimaroke Nnamani, and others who has declared support for Tinubu can not be wished away.

Rivers

Voting patterns in Rivers may surprise many Nigerians. Wike, who is leading the G5, has reportedly directed his supporters to vote for Tinubu of APC. Though observers hold that his directive will not bring a substantial change to the vote patterns, Nigerians are likely to see Atiku, Tinubu and Obi share the votes. In fact, APC is expected to poll higher number of votes this time unlike in 2019.

Wike opened his door to the three presidential candidates that went to campaign in the state. Atiku never went to Rivers for campaign.

The G5 position is sure to mar Atiku’s chances of clear victory in the five states, thereby threatening his overall victory in the election. After Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Kastina and Rivers, Oyo State ranks next in voting strength. In fact, both Rivers and Oyo states recorded between 700,000 and 800,000 votes for both APC and PDP candidates in the 2019 election.

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Wale Tinubu, Rabiu, others Join President Tinubu in Makkah for Umrah

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The Group Chief Executive Oando Plc, Jubril Adewale Tinubu; Chairman of BUA Group, Abdul Samad Rabiu, and several other Nigerian business mogul have joined President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in Makkah, Saudi Arabia, for the performance of Umrah, the lesser Islamic pilgrimage.

The presence of the prominent Nigerian business leaders alongside the President in the holy city has drawn attention, bringing together three influential figures from Nigeria’s political and business communities in a moment of religious observance.

Tinubu and Rabiu, both prominent names in Nigeria’s corporate landscape, were seen alongside the President dressed in the traditional white Ihram garments worn by Muslim pilgrims performing Umrah.

Umrah, unlike the obligatory Hajj pilgrimage, can be undertaken at any time of the year. It involves a series of religious rites in Makkah and holds profound spiritual significance for Muslims across the world.

For the Nigerian business community, the appearance of the corporate leaders alongside the President also offers a glimpse into the intersection of faith, business and public life, particularly when influential figures come together outside the usual settings of boardrooms, corporate engagements and official functions.

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The development comes as President Tinubu undertook the pilgrimage to seek divine guidance and offer prayers for Nigeria’s peace, unity, stability and progress.

According to the Presidency, the President performed the Umrah rites early Friday, October 30, at the Grand Mosque, Masjid al-Haram, where he circumambulated the Holy Ka’abah.

Speaking after completing the spiritual exercise, Tinubu described the pilgrimage as significant, linking it to his commitment to Nigeria and its people. He also expressed gratitude to Allah for the opportunity to pray for the country.

The President’s prayers reportedly centre on national harmony, security, economic prosperity and the need for Nigerians to live together peacefully.

Rabiu also used the occasion to express his hopes for the country, describing it as an honour to accompany the President on the spiritual journey. He prayed for lasting peace, unity and prosperity in Nigeria.

For Tinubu, whose Oando Group occupies a prominent position in Nigeria’s energy industry, the journey offered a departure from the familiar world of corporate leadership and business engagements. Rabiu, similarly, is a major player in the country’s industrial sector, with interests spanning manufacturing, cement and food production.

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Their appearance in Makkah alongside the President underscores the presence of leading figures from Nigeria’s private sector at an important spiritual moment for the country’s leader.

Umrah, often described as the lesser pilgrimage, is a significant act of worship in Islam. Unlike Hajj, which takes place during a specific period in the Islamic calendar, Umrah can be performed throughout the year.

President Tinubu is expected to return to Nigeria next week after completing his spiritual engagements in Saudi Arabia.

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Atiku’s son Abba Abubakar promises to deliver Adamawa for Tinubu

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Abba Abubakar, son of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, has promised to deliver Adamawa, his father’s state, for President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 elections.

He spoke on Friday at the All Progressives Congress (APC) national secretariat in Abuja during the Haske Bola Tinubu Organisation (HBTO) unveiling and the launch of its subsidised public transportation support scheme.

Abubakar, HBTO founder, said his decision to back Tinubu is not an attempt to antagonise his father, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate.

“I recognise that political decisions, particularly those that differ from the positions of individuals with whom one shares personal and family relationships, often attract considerable public attention,” he said.

“However, political conviction is a matter of personal judgment, conscience, and the freedom of every individual to make independent choices.

“My decision to establish and lead the HBTO is a deliberate political choice made with a firm belief in the direction we have chosen.”

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He said democracy is strengthened when individuals can make independent political choices, engage in constructive dialogue, and support the leadership and political platforms they believe best represent their aspirations.

“It is within this spirit that HBTO was established,” he said.

He commended the economic reforms introduced by the Tinubu administration, citing the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND), national infrastructure investments, increased statutory allocations to state governments, and transport support schemes as some of the key social intervention programmes.

Asked whether he would ensure the president gets maximum votes in Adamawa, Abubakar said: “Yes, yes, yes. We are going to deliver Adamawa state.”

He, however, said his decision should not be seen as a betrayal of his family ties or his father’s political aspiration.

“I’ve always supported my father since I started acting in politics, and I supported him because of what he has done for the country,” he said.

“But I believe that whenever a government comes out with policies that will help the people, I will join them.

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“It’s not just because it’s my father. I don’t think I am antagonising him; I simply believe in the current government’s policies and the reforms taking place.”

Abubakar joined the APC in January 2026, vowing to mobilise support for Tinubu’s re-election.

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Good morning! Nigerian Newspapers Headlines: How AI-generated photos entered voter register, by INEC

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1. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) yesterday  blamed some of its registration officers across the country  for the appearance of suspected artificial intelligence (AI)-generated photographs and other irregularities in its preliminary voters’ register.

The commission alleged  that some officials  exploited their authorised access to its registration system to introduce questionable records into the database.

2. Rising temperatures, compounded by erratic electricity supply, are forcing residents in many states to sleep outdoors, take repeated night-time baths and spend more on alternative power sources as households struggle to cope with the heat. While many Nigerians who spoke with Saturday PUNCH reported prolonged blackouts and inadequate water supply, others said the conditions had made nights uncomfortable.

3. Troops conducting internal security operations across the country killed more than 217 terrorists and other armed criminals in October, the Defence Headquarters, DHQ, has said. The operations, conducted between September 30 and October 30, also led to the rescue of hundreds of kidnapped victims, the arrest of suspected terrorists and their collaborators, and the surrender of more than 50 terrorist fighters and their family members.

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4. A businessman, Akinbolusere Kayode, popularly known as Tolufe, has allegedly committed suicide at Igba town in Ondo State, after lamenting his personal and business challenges in a video that has gone viral on social media. Akinbolusere, 46, reportedly died in his office beside BOVAS Petrol Station, Igba Town, at about 3 pm on Thursday. The State Police Command confirmed his death in a statement issued by its spokesperson, Jimoh Abayomi, in Akure on Friday evening.

5. Omoyele Sowore, presidential candidate of the African Action Congress, AAC, and the Ekiti State Police Command have given conflicting accounts of an incident at a restaurant in Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State, on Friday. While Sowore insisted that he and members of his team were violently attacked, the police described the incident as an altercation with some individuals, saying the activist sustained a minor injury.

6. The Federal Capital Territory Police Command has arrested a pastor, Edwin Nwabueze, and another suspect, Sadiq Jamiu, over the alleged theft of a Toyota Camry in Abuja. The vehicle was reportedly stolen at UTC Plaza in the Garki area of the Federal Capital Territory. The police said Nwabueze, who identified himself as a pastor with Salvation Power Bible Ministry in the North Bank area of Benue State, was arrested, following investigations into the theft.

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7. Kemi Badenoch, leader of Britain’s Conservative Party, says “racist attacks” against her are “not going to work”, after Raheem Kassam, a former aide to Nigel Farage, called her a “Nigerian scammer”. Badenoch spoke during an interview on ITV’s Good Morning Britain on Thursday, following a series of posts by Kassam criticising her.



8. Senator Adams Oshiomhole has defended President Bola Tinubu’s decision not to attend every campaign rally ahead of the 2027 general elections. He insisted that there is no contradiction between the President’s religious activities and his responsibility to govern the country. Oshiomhole said Tinubu’s decision to limit his participation in campaign activities was a matter of choice and the prerogative of the ruling All Progressives Congress.

9. The Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps, Kano State Command, has busted an illegal diesel refining site at Panisau, Ungoggo Local Government Area of Kano State, leading to the arrest of five suspects. This was disclosed on Friday in a statement signed by the command’s Public Relations Officer, Ibrahim Abdullahi.

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10. A 15-year-old Ghanaian boy, Javits Frimpong, has been shot and killed in the Bronx, New York, while on his way to school, with his father alleging that bullying at school may have contributed to the incident. Frimpong was shot in the stomach near East 171st Street and Third Avenue shortly after 9 a.m. on Thursday, according to law enforcement officials. The shooting happened just steps from his home. 

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